Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:03:14 -0500

157 
FXPQ60 PGUM 242103
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
7 AM CHST SAT SEP 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
CONVERGENT WIND FLOW INTO TYPHOON MALAKAS IS GENERATING CONVECTION 
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
LIES SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. 
WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO PICK UP A NOTCH AS AN AREA OF 
MODERATE WINDS REACH OUR VICINITY. GFS MODEL PICKS UP ON THIS SO 
GRADUALLY BROUGHT THIS INTO THE GRIDS. SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF 
GUAM IS MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS MAY EXTEND INTO 
THE COASTAL ZONE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER.

SURF OBS YESTERDAY REFLECTED A NORTH SWELL COMPONENT LIKELY FROM 
TYPHOON MALAKAS. AN INCREASE IN THE SEA AND SURF HEIGHTS BY LATE 
SUNDAY IS STILL EXPECTED.

&&
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ REMAINS ISOLATED AND PRIMARILY 
TO THE NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT MAJURO 
THIS MORNING BUT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST RELATIVELY DRY 
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR 
CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF 
THE MARIANAS OVER CHUUK...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEVELOPING 
SHOWERS NEAR THE TROUGH. MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CURRENT SCENARIO WELL 
BUT DO INDICATE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH 
SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE WEST TOWARD YAP AND PALAU. SURFACE RIDGE 
NORTH OF PALAU IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST 
TRADES TO RETURN TO YAP AND KOROR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. 
TROUGH OVER CHUUK IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD...AND BEGIN TO 
AFFECT YAP AND KOROR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF FEATURE REMAINS 
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. NEVERTHELESS...A TREND TOWARD INCREASING 
CLOUDS AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR YAP AND KOROR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MILLER/WILLIAMS

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