From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 25 05:03:36 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8OL3ZoA013816 for ; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 05:03:36 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8OE1ca1028356; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:03:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3576569 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:03:21 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8OL3Ldo015415 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:03:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8OL3FR3017068 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:03:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6DFB2108B0002; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:03:14 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=38 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009240163 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100924210314.6DFB2108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:03:14 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 157 FXPQ60 PGUM 242103 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 7 AM CHST SAT SEP 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... CONVERGENT WIND FLOW INTO TYPHOON MALAKAS IS GENERATING CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIES SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE LIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO PICK UP A NOTCH AS AN AREA OF MODERATE WINDS REACH OUR VICINITY. GFS MODEL PICKS UP ON THIS SO GRADUALLY BROUGHT THIS INTO THE GRIDS. SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF GUAM IS MOVING WESTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS FROM THIS MAY EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL ZONE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER. SURF OBS YESTERDAY REFLECTED A NORTH SWELL COMPONENT LIKELY FROM TYPHOON MALAKAS. AN INCREASE IN THE SEA AND SURF HEIGHTS BY LATE SUNDAY IS STILL EXPECTED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ REMAINS ISOLATED AND PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT MAJURO THIS MORNING BUT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. .WESTERN MICRONESIA... LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS OVER CHUUK...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEVELOPING SHOWERS NEAR THE TROUGH. MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CURRENT SCENARIO WELL BUT DO INDICATE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE WEST TOWARD YAP AND PALAU. SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF PALAU IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST TRADES TO RETURN TO YAP AND KOROR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TROUGH OVER CHUUK IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT YAP AND KOROR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF FEATURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. NEVERTHELESS...A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR YAP AND KOROR. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MILLER/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.