Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2010 00:56:51 -0500

212 
FXPQ60 PGUM 250556
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
356 PM CHST SAT SEP 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF
GUAM...BUT WITH A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE GUAM/ROTA
WATERS. THE BIG FEATURE ON SATELLITE IS THE E-W BAND OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SW OF GUAM EASTWARD TO NORTH OF POHNPEI.
THIS IS A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 10-15 KT
EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE BAND AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
IT. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS IS BIG A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING QUITE
A BIT MORE RAINFALL TO GUAM THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS...MAINLY FROM
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DESCRIBED ABOVE. IF
GFS IS RIGHT...GUAM COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE TINIAN AND SAIPAN GET ONLY ISOLATED. HOWEVER...NOGAPS AND
UKMET KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM...CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS TO GO WITH
SCATTERED...BUT WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SO CLOSE TO THE 
SOUTH...HAVE OPTED FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WEATHER VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THIS
FORECAST. BUT IN ANY CASE...GUAM WILL PROBABLY SEE SOMEWHAT MORE
RAINFALL THAN ISLANDS TO THE NORTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RIP RISK MODERATE ON NORTH FACING
REEFS FOR A FEW DAYS. INCREASING TRADE SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE
RISK MODERATE ON EAST FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

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