From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 25 13:57:16 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8P5vFYh025645 for ; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 13:57:15 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8P50RBs019148; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 00:56:59 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3582350 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 00:56:58 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8P5uw6t024382 for ; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 00:56:58 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8P5upnG004174 for ; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 00:56:58 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DA3B4108B0001; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 00:56:51 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009240249 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100925055651.DA3B4108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2010 00:56:51 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 212 FXPQ60 PGUM 250556 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 356 PM CHST SAT SEP 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF GUAM...BUT WITH A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE GUAM/ROTA WATERS. THE BIG FEATURE ON SATELLITE IS THE E-W BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SW OF GUAM EASTWARD TO NORTH OF POHNPEI. THIS IS A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 10-15 KT EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE BAND AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF IT. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST GFS IS BIG A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING QUITE A BIT MORE RAINFALL TO GUAM THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS...MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DESCRIBED ABOVE. IF GFS IS RIGHT...GUAM COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE TINIAN AND SAIPAN GET ONLY ISOLATED. HOWEVER...NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GFS TO GO WITH SCATTERED...BUT WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SO CLOSE TO THE SOUTH...HAVE OPTED FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WEATHER VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT IN ANY CASE...GUAM WILL PROBABLY SEE SOMEWHAT MORE RAINFALL THAN ISLANDS TO THE NORTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .MARINE... NORTH SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE RIP RISK MODERATE ON NORTH FACING REEFS FOR A FEW DAYS. INCREASING TRADE SWELL WILL ALSO KEEP THE RISK MODERATE ON EAST FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... WILL BE ADDED AFTER 5 PM. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WILL BE ADDED AFTER 5 PM. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.