Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2010 17:02:46 -0500

677 
FXPQ60 PGUM 252202
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
802 AM CHST SUN SEP 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF SAIPAN COULD ALLOW A FEW OF
THEM TO DEVELOP ENOUGH VERTICAL EXTENT TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE MARIANAS.
EXTENDED CLOUD GRIDS LOOKED GREAT AS DID ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
RATHER INACTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND INHERITED PACKAGE
DEPICTED THIS QUITE WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AN EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE ITCZ WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTMS OVER MAJURO LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIER 
CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO SETTLE IN THE LONG-TERM FOR THE MARSHALLS. 
IR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER POHNPEI AND 
JUST NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE...BUT IS ANTICIPATED THAT MOST OF THE 
ACTIVITY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE. MODELS SHOW A GENERAL 
DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS TRADE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER 
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS IS 
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF YAP BUT SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT 
OBSERVED UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE YAP AREA LATER 
TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF KOROR. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER KOROR AND YAP THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL 
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE LONG TERM OVER THE PALAU AND YAP 
REGION...BUT DO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CHUUK FORECAST AS MODELS 
SUGGEST LIGHT SOUTHEAST TRADES AND ISOLATED CONTINUING THROUGH A 
GOOD PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.