From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 26 06:03:13 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8PM3ChJ021723 for ; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 06:03:13 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8P50RXg019148; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 17:02:53 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3589096 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 17:02:53 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8PM2reu001978 for ; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 17:02:53 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8PM2k34017748 for ; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 17:02:52 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 941A6108B0001; Sat, 25 Sep 2010 17:02:46 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009250152 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100925220246.941A6108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2010 17:02:46 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 677 FXPQ60 PGUM 252202 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 802 AM CHST SUN SEP 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF SAIPAN COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THEM TO DEVELOP ENOUGH VERTICAL EXTENT TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. && .DISCUSSION... LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE MARIANAS. EXTENDED CLOUD GRIDS LOOKED GREAT AS DID ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. RATHER INACTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND INHERITED PACKAGE DEPICTED THIS QUITE WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... AN EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE ITCZ WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTMS OVER MAJURO LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO SETTLE IN THE LONG-TERM FOR THE MARSHALLS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER POHNPEI AND JUST NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE...BUT IS ANTICIPATED THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE. MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS TRADE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS IS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF YAP BUT SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE YAP AREA LATER TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF KOROR. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER KOROR AND YAP THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE LONG TERM OVER THE PALAU AND YAP REGION...BUT DO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CHUUK FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT SOUTHEAST TRADES AND ISOLATED CONTINUING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.