From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 26 13:50:00 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8Q5nxEK023070 for ; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 13:50:00 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8P50Rn2019126; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 00:49:45 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3592208 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 00:49:44 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8Q5nhtP028250 for ; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 00:49:43 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8Q5muae022943 for ; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 00:49:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8D55E4050020; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 00:48:56 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009250239 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100926054856.8D55E4050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2010 00:48:56 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 180 FXPQ60 PGUM 260548 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 348 PM CHST SUN SEP 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS... ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN ABOUT 13N AND 15N FROM 146E TO 151E...MOVING WEST. IPAN BOUY SHOWS SEAS APPROACHING 5 FEET ON THE EAST SIDE OF GUAM. && .DISCUSSION... IN GENERAL...MODELS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THAT GFS IS NOT AS EMPHATIC ON SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT WAS 24 HRS AGO. BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN EASTERLIES ALONG 13-15N AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THAT LATITUDE BAND KEEPS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE MARIANAS...AND IT APPEARS THEY HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED THROUGH MIDNITE...THEN REVERT BACK TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TUE NITE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS UKMET HINTS AT SCATTERED SHOWERS MON NITE AND TUE. && .MARINE/SURF... NORTH SWELL DUE TO ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAKING LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING HIGH SURF AT THIS POINT...BUT RIP RISK WILL BE HIGH-END MODERATE ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE HAS GENERALLY STAYED IN PLACE TODAY WITH LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESSION. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED MOST SHOWERY ACTIVITY FROM THE MAJURO AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE WEEK FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES WESTWARD. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF CHUUK EASTWARD ACROSS MICRONESIA. HOWEVER...MOST CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF CHUUK. MODELS KEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST...BUT A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR YAP AND PALAU WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH LACKING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS... BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATES A 3 TO 5 FT NORTH SWELL WILL REACH YAP AND PALAU BEGINNING MONDAY AND WILL LAST UNTIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.