Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2010 00:48:56 -0500

180 
FXPQ60 PGUM 260548
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
348 PM CHST SUN SEP 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN
ABOUT 13N AND 15N FROM 146E TO 151E...MOVING WEST. IPAN BOUY SHOWS
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FEET ON THE EAST SIDE OF GUAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL...MODELS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
THAT GFS IS NOT AS EMPHATIC ON SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT WAS 24 HRS
AGO. BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN EASTERLIES ALONG 13-15N AND
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THAT LATITUDE BAND KEEPS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE MARIANAS...AND IT APPEARS
THEY HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED THROUGH MIDNITE...THEN REVERT BACK TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TUE NITE. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS UKMET HINTS AT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MON NITE AND TUE. 

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
NORTH SWELL DUE TO ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAKING LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING HIGH SURF AT THIS POINT...BUT RIP RISK WILL
BE HIGH-END MODERATE ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE HAS GENERALLY STAYED IN 
PLACE TODAY WITH LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESSION. SOUTHEAST FLOW 
CONTINUES TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND HAS JUST 
ABOUT CLEARED MOST SHOWERY ACTIVITY FROM THE MAJURO AREA. MODELS 
SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE WEEK FOR 
MAJURO AND KOSRAE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES WESTWARD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF CHUUK EASTWARD 
ACROSS MICRONESIA. HOWEVER...MOST CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF CHUUK. 
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST...BUT A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER 
COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH 
NEAR YAP AND PALAU WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH LACKING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS... 
BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH 
PASSES. WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATES A 3 TO 5 FT NORTH SWELL WILL REACH 
YAP AND PALAU BEGINNING MONDAY AND WILL LAST UNTIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY 
BEFORE SUBSIDING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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