From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 27 05:23:29 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8QLNR4D023385 for ; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 05:23:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8QCDgiw019148; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 16:23:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3599906 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 16:23:13 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8QLNDOc010670 for ; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 16:23:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8QLN6nq009996 for ; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 16:23:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 83C0E108B0002; Sun, 26 Sep 2010 16:23:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009260134 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100926212306.83C0E108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2010 16:23:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 936 FXPQ60 PGUM 262122 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 722 AM CHST MON SEP 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MARIANAS WATERS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE TROUGHS ARE CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR PALAU...CHUUK AND KWAJALEIN. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS EXPECTED. SMALL WRINKLES IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL DOUBTLESS CREATE MORE SHORT- LIVED BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE DUE TO HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION CONSTRAINTS. ALSO THE MODELS DO NOT DO ALL THAT WELL WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS EITHER. INHERITED FORECAST SEEMED TO BE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND NORTH SWELL FROM FORMER TYPHOON MALAKAS ARE COMBINING TO MAKE THE SEAS A LITTLE ROUGHER THAN USUAL. SURF MAY APPROACH HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THE WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... AN ITCZ IS STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. AS IMPULSES TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE ITCZ CONVERGE TOWARD THE CIRCULATION...CONVERGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR POHNPEI AT LEAST THRU THIS EVENING. AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO DRIFT W-NW ON TUESDAY...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD LIFT FARTHER NORTH OF THE ISLAND AND ALLOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY MIDWEEK. MUCH WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WILL KEEP RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER OVER KOSRAE THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EASTERN END OF THE ITCZ MOVES FARTHER WEST OF MAJURO. LATEST IR AND ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CPHC INVEST AREA 97C EAST OF THE DATE LINE NEAR 8N173W AND SLOWLY MIGRATING W-SW. BASED ON ITS CURRENT MOTION...IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MAJURO BY TUESDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLE KOSRAE ON WEDNESDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE WEAK CIRCULATION JUST NORTHEAST OF CHUUK REMAINED ALMOST STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR ITS CENTER AND ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGING WINDS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTER TO SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. THE CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER CHUUK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THRU TODAY. MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM NORTH OF 10N ARE ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY STEER THE CIRCULATION W-NW AND CAUSE IT TO PASS JUST NORTH OF CHUUK ON TUESDAY WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION DRAPING OVER THE ISLAND. CONDITIONS COULD THEN BECOME DRIER AFTER MIDWEEK AS LIGHTER SOUTHEAST TRADES TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION IS ALSO PRESENT NORTHEAST OF KOROR THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A MID TO UPPER HIGH NEAR THE MARIANAS IS PROVIDING DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION IS COUPLING WITH THE DIVERGENT WINDS TO CREATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER KOROR THIS MORNING AND WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE CIRCULATION ALREADY NORTHWEST OF YAP...FAIRER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF GUAM MIGHT INTRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF INSTABILITY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST AFTER MIDWEEK DEPENDS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR CHUUK. A W-NW TRACK WILL TAKE IT OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND MIGHT FORM A SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. SWELLS FROM FORMER TYPHOON MALAKAS WILL CAUSE HIGHER SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES BY THIS EVENING BUT NO ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.