Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:56:04 -0500

290 
FXPQ60 PGUM 270555
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
355 PM CHST MON SEP 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS PRESENT EAST OF THE ISLANDS OUT PAST
150E. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS INDICATES DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AND SATELLITE TRENDS BEAR THIS OUT. SO HAVE TRIMMED
BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TUE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. BUT BOTH GFS AND UKMET SHOW E-W TROUGH EXTENDING
TOWARD THE MARIANAS FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AND WED...WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP EAST OF THE TROUGH...ACROSS THE MARIANAS.
IN ADDITION...GFS HAS A WEAK N-S TROUGH PASSING WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF GUAM WED. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...AND HAVE ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. BEYOND THAT...HAVE GONE
BACK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FOR WED
NIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT...AS MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL DURING THAT
TIME. 

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVY GOING INTO TUE MRNG...THEN WILL DECIDE
WHETHER TO EXTEND AFTER RECEIVING SURF REPORTS. SINCE THIS SURF
IS A RESULT OF SWELL GENERATED BY LONG-GONE TYPHOON MALAKAS...
WHICH HAD ONLY A LIMITED TIME TO KICK UP ANY SWELL...SURF SHOULD
BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER CONSOLIDATED ALONG A TROUGH NORTH OF 
KOSRAE AND NW OF KWAJALEIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST ASCAT 
REVEALS A SHARP TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION NEAR 10N165E. 
MODEL GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...PERHAPS A 
LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...BUT SE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF 
KOSRAE. SIMILARLY...POHNPEI SHOULD GET BY WITH JUST ISLTD SHOWERS AS 
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WNW. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE DATE LINE 
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAJURO TUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BY 
TUE NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A VERY PROLONGED PERIOD OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT IF THE REMNANTS OF INVEST AREA 97C HOLD 
TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD BE 
POSSIBLE AFTER WED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER CHUUK THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 
WEAK CIRCULATION NORTH OF CHUUK HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY... 
KEEPING CONVECTION LOCKED IN PLACE. MODELS WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION 
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND SLOWLY PUSH IT WNW TUE AND WED WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING AT CHUUK TUE EVENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED 
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK CIRCULATION IN EASTERN MICRONESIA ARE 
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF CHUUK. 

SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED OUT OVER KOROR TODAY WHILE MORE SHOWERS 
ARE SEEN FARTHER TO THE EAST AND NEAR YAP. A SW-NE SURFACE TROUGH 
WILL MOVE BETWEEN THE TWO LOCATIONS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR YAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REACH KOROR 
LATER TONIGHT. GFS KEEPS WET WEATHER IN THE AREA THRU TUE NIGHT FOR 
KOROR AND WED NIGHT FOR YAP. ALTIMETRY DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
HIGHER COMBINED SEAS AS SWELL FROM FORMER TYPHOON MALAKAS AFFECTS 
YAP AND KOROR THROUGH WED NIGHT...HOWEVER...NO HIGH SURF ADVISORIES 
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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