From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 27 13:56:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8R5uRaV024797 for ; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 13:56:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8R3jlIv019148; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:56:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3605855 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:56:12 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8R5uC7m022981 for ; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:56:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8R5u5x4028675 for ; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:56:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 399DE405001E; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:56:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009260208 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100927055605.399DE405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:56:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 290 FXPQ60 PGUM 270555 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 355 PM CHST MON SEP 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS PRESENT EAST OF THE ISLANDS OUT PAST 150E. && .DISCUSSION... GFS INDICATES DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND SATELLITE TRENDS BEAR THIS OUT. SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TUE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BUT BOTH GFS AND UKMET SHOW E-W TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE MARIANAS FROM THE WEST LATE TUE AND WED...WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP EAST OF THE TROUGH...ACROSS THE MARIANAS. IN ADDITION...GFS HAS A WEAK N-S TROUGH PASSING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF GUAM WED. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...AND HAVE ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. BEYOND THAT...HAVE GONE BACK TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FOR WED NIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT...AS MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL DURING THAT TIME. && .MARINE... WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVY GOING INTO TUE MRNG...THEN WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO EXTEND AFTER RECEIVING SURF REPORTS. SINCE THIS SURF IS A RESULT OF SWELL GENERATED BY LONG-GONE TYPHOON MALAKAS... WHICH HAD ONLY A LIMITED TIME TO KICK UP ANY SWELL...SURF SHOULD BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER CONSOLIDATED ALONG A TROUGH NORTH OF KOSRAE AND NW OF KWAJALEIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST ASCAT REVEALS A SHARP TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION NEAR 10N165E. MODEL GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...BUT SE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF KOSRAE. SIMILARLY...POHNPEI SHOULD GET BY WITH JUST ISLTD SHOWERS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WNW. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING THE DATE LINE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAJURO TUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BY TUE NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A VERY PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT IF THE REMNANTS OF INVEST AREA 97C HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER WED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER CHUUK THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A WEAK CIRCULATION NORTH OF CHUUK HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY... KEEPING CONVECTION LOCKED IN PLACE. MODELS WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND SLOWLY PUSH IT WNW TUE AND WED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING AT CHUUK TUE EVENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK CIRCULATION IN EASTERN MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF CHUUK. SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED OUT OVER KOROR TODAY WHILE MORE SHOWERS ARE SEEN FARTHER TO THE EAST AND NEAR YAP. A SW-NE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE BETWEEN THE TWO LOCATIONS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR YAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REACH KOROR LATER TONIGHT. GFS KEEPS WET WEATHER IN THE AREA THRU TUE NIGHT FOR KOROR AND WED NIGHT FOR YAP. ALTIMETRY DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHER COMBINED SEAS AS SWELL FROM FORMER TYPHOON MALAKAS AFFECTS YAP AND KOROR THROUGH WED NIGHT...HOWEVER...NO HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.