From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 28 05:51:03 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8RLp2m0031339 for ; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 05:51:02 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8RITLae019148; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 16:50:44 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3621494 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 16:50:44 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8RLoifW015275 for ; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 16:50:44 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8RLoaxn020554 for ; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 16:50:43 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D45A54050055; Mon, 27 Sep 2010 16:50:36 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=99 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009270208 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100927215036.D45A54050055@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2010 16:50:36 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 353 FXPQ60 PGUM 272149 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 749 AM CHST TUE SEP 28 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF GUAM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR YAP AND JUST EAST OF MAJURO ALSO. && .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE JUST SOUTH OF GUAM RIGHT NOW. SATELLITE LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MOS STILL SEEMS TO LIKE THEM SO IT COULD FILL IN. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CAUSE OF ANY MAJOR SHIFTS IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS THE DAY GOES ON. && .MARINE... LARGE SWELLS FROM FORMER TYPHOON MALAKAS SHOULD START DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS TO DECREASE FROM 7 FEET TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURF SHOULD DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A GENTLE TRADE-WIND REGIME ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS AT MID LEVELS WILL PROMOTE FAIR CONDITIONS FOR POHNPEI INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND KOSRAE THRU THIS EVENING. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH OF MAJURO TO 7N177E...THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE DATE LINE AND FORMER CPHC INVEST AREA 97C TO BEYOND 170W AT 10N. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE CLOUDINESS OVER MAJURO TODAY AND PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS EVENING. AS IT SLOWLY EXTENDS WESTWARD...IT MIGHT ALSO AFFECT KOSRAE BY WEDNESDAY AND POHNPEI ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TRADE SURGE IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EAST OF THE DATE LINE. WITH STRONGER TRADES EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF 10N OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...THE SOUTHEAST SURGE WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR AND KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH ALONG WITH 97C NEAR 9N BY MIDWEEK. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CAUSE THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO STAY NORTH OF MAJURO...AND ALSO ALLOW DRIER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO RETURN OVER BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AFTER MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE WEAK CIRCULATION HAS DRIFTED FARTHER NORTHWEST OF CHUUK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY MIGHT STILL SPARK A THUNDER OR TWO TODAY. THEN WEAKER TRADES ALONG WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST ARE GOING TO SPREAD FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND BY THIS EVENING. TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT BETWEEN KOROR AND YAP THIS MORNING. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER YAP AND WILL REMAIN SO THRU TONIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT...THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO IMPACT KOROR AS WELL. MOST MODELS ARE MERGING THE WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR CHUUK INTO THE TROUGH NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP...THEN TAKING THEM INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA ON THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY PROVIDE QUIETER WEATHER FOR BOTH LOCATIONS TOWARD THE WEEKEND. HIGHER SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL PEAK AROUND 7 FEET THRU THIS EVENING...THEN BEGINS TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CHST THIS MORNING FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.