From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 28 13:59:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8S5xfdb031242 for ; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 13:59:42 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8S512YW025335; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:59:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3628324 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:59:26 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8S5xQ2g001173 for ; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:59:26 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8S5xJst006007 for ; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:59:25 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 409E34050030; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:59:19 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009270305 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100928055919.409E34050030@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:59:19 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 133 FXPQ60 PGUM 280558 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 358 PM CHST TUE SEP 28 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER THE SHOWERS OF THIS MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG11N EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS ABOUT 141E...AS IS EVIDENT FROM LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON HI-RES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. && .DISCUSSION... GFS AND UKMET HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS AND UKMET STILL SHOW THE TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MARIANAS TONIGHT...WITH A SEPARATE N-S WESTWARD-MOVING TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM WED. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE E-W TROUGH SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE MARIANAS...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SECOND TROUGH PASSES BY ON WED. NOT NECESSARILY LOOKING FOR A BIG RAIN EVENT...JUST A LOW- END SCATTERED SITUATION BLENDING BACK INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER WED NITE THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRI AND THE WEEKEND...DRYING SETS IN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .MARINE... AFTERNOON REPORTS INDICATE SURF STILL HITTING 10 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS OF GUAM...SO HIGH SURF IS CONTINUED UNTIL NOON WED. SEAS SHOULD FALL STEADILY THRU THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE NORTH AND EAST SWELL BOTH DIMINISH. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION FROM POHNPEI TO WEST OF THE MARSHALLS WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE AREA IS A TROUGH ORIENTED NW-SE AND JUST CROSSING THE RATAK CHAIN OF THE MARSHALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE LOW AT MAJURO SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD FROM NEAR MAJURO AND CROSSES THE DATE LINE HEADING INTO A STATIONARY CIRCULATION AT 9N175W. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH WNW THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BYPASSING MAJURO. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE SCATTERED SHOWERS DO DEVELOP IN THE COMING DAYS. WINDS AT MAJURO WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT WITH VARYING DIRECTION BASED ON JUST WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS LIES. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AFTER SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...CHUUK WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY WEATHER OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA SPREADS WESTWARD AND A TROUGH JUST WEST OF CHUUK CONTINUES WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVER A LARGE AREA INCLUDING PALAU...YAP AND THE MARIANAS...BETWEEN 5N TO 14N FROM 130E TO 148E. A WEAK CIRCULATION WEST OF YAP IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS WHILE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE CONTRIBUTES NEAR THE MARIANAS. ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLDER CLOUD TOPS MIGRATING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM YAP TO PALAU WHICH SHOULD END SCATTERED SHOWERS AT YAP THIS EVENING WHILE STARTING UP A PALAU. MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THE CIRCULATION NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT YAP WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BOTH LOCATIONS...BUT WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATES HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY WEDNESDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.