From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 29 05:21:08 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8SLL6KJ024238 for ; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 05:21:08 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8SEZ5sW017597; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 16:20:50 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3642565 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 16:20:49 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8SLKnKJ013499 for ; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 16:20:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8SLKgw6011076 for ; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 16:20:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id BC8D24050033; Tue, 28 Sep 2010 16:20:42 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20100928212042.BC8D24050033@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2010 16:20:42 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 147 FXPQ60 PGUM 282120 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 720 AM CHST WED SEP 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING IN. THESE ARE BEING CAUSED BY THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS. && .DISCUSSION... TROUGH COMING IN NEARLY AS FORECAST. JUST TWEAKED THE FIRST 6 HOURS AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OVERALL...FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE AND ONLY THIS MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NECESSARY. && .MARINE... SWELL FROM FORMER TYPHOON MALAKAS SHOULD DIMINISH STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. SEA HEIGHTS WERE NEVER HIGH ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CHUUK THRU THURSDAY EVENING...AND POHNPEI THRU TONIGHT AS DRIER GENTLE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS EARLIER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF MAJURO...AND TRANSFORMED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. ITS LEADING EDGE IS APPROACHING KOSRAE WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING BEFORE NOON TODAY. WEAKER CONVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINLY CREATE SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR MAJURO INTO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH KEEPS SLIDING WESTWARD...IT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AT POHNPEI ON THURSDAY AND CHUUK BY FRIDAY. AFTERWARD...WEAKER TRADES BEHIND THE TROUGH ARE GOING TO PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...AND FOR POHNPEI AND CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...INCREASING TRADE CONVERGENCE FROM THE EAST MIGHT START A WETTING TREND FOR THE MARSHALLS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH HAS DRIFTED NORTHWEST OF KOROR AND YAP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE CAN STILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THRU THIS EVENING. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA WILL BE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM LATER THIS EVENING. AS IT CLOSES INTO YAP ON THURSDAY...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP AGAIN. AT THIS POINT...THE BULK OF THE ACTION MIGHT STAY JUST NORTH OF KOROR. IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND TROUGH...FAIR WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA SHOULD FINALLY ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. SURF OF AROUND 6 TO 7 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CHST TODAY FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.