Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:01:08 -0500

827 
FXPQ60 PGUM 290500
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST WED SEP 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE PLENTIFUL ALL AROUND THE MARIANAS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE EAST...BUT THE MARIANAS WATERS HAVE BEEN IN A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON RADAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...AND
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MASS OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST IS MAKING SLOW
BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS/UKMET AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AGREE ON THE TROUGH
MOVING WEST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE
IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER GOING THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TRADE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OFF WESTWARD...GFS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST A CHANCE OF ISLAND SHOWERS
SAT/SUN...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KILL THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SWELL IS DEFINITELY ON THE WAY OUT...AND SHOULD SEE STEADILY
DECLINING SEAS AND SURF THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED AFTER 5 PM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.