From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 29 13:01:32 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8T51V01001771 for ; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 13:01:32 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8SJFqJN025335; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:01:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3648313 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:01:15 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8T51Fti023255 for ; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:01:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8T518rr003551 for ; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:01:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B20BB4050030; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:01:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20100929050108.B20BB4050030@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:01:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 827 FXPQ60 PGUM 290500 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 PM CHST WED SEP 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS ARE PLENTIFUL ALL AROUND THE MARIANAS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...BUT THE MARIANAS WATERS HAVE BEEN IN A RELATIVE DRY SLOT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON RADAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MASS OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST IS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST GFS/UKMET AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AGREE ON THE TROUGH MOVING WEST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER GOING THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TRADE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF WESTWARD...GFS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST A CHANCE OF ISLAND SHOWERS SAT/SUN...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KILL THAT POSSIBILITY. && .MARINE... NORTH SWELL IS DEFINITELY ON THE WAY OUT...AND SHOULD SEE STEADILY DECLINING SEAS AND SURF THROUGH SATURDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... WILL BE ADDED AFTER 5 PM. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WILL BE ADDED AFTER 5 PM. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.