From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 30 05:52:12 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8TLqBDc015978 for ; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 05:52:12 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8TLcUYn025335; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:51:54 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3664114 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:51:54 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8TLps1I018601 for ; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:51:54 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8TLpm8Z009400 for ; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:51:54 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 03D124050057; Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:51:47 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20100929215148.03D124050057@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:51:47 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 485 FXPQ60 PGUM 292151 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 751 AM CHST THU SEP 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MARIANAS WATERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS IS PART OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/. && .DISCUSSION... TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO RULE OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THEREFORE MADE SURE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THEN. DID TRY TO REDUCE THE SHOWERS AT 4 AM...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING THIS TURNED OUT TO BE A MISTAKE. ENDED UP UPDATING MY OWN FORECAST. WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FOR THE WEEKEND...AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. && .MARINE... TRADE-WIND SWELLS WILL DIP A LITTLE AND SWELL FROM FORMER TYPHOON MALAKAS WILL FADE AWAY ENTIRELY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS TO DROP ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO. THIS WILL ALLOW BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... AN EXTENSIVE BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. IT WILL PROLONG CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR MAJURO THRU THIS EVENING...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI INTO FRIDAY AND INTRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CHUUK BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE BY THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN TO ALL THE ABOVE LOCATIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TRADE SURGE CROSSING THE DATE LINE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGER MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK CIRCULATION HAS FORMED JUST SOUTH OF GUAM AND IS APPROACHING YAP THIS MORNING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS WEAKENED LAST EVENING BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RE-GENERATING. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF YAP TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENTLE TRADES SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION...WEATHER OVER KOROR WILL BE CONTROLLED BY DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS WITH A SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE CIRCULATION PULLING FARTHER NORTHWEST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY FRIDAY EVENING...IT WILL ALLOW DRIER TRADES NEAR THE EQUATOR...INDICATED BY LATEST WV IMAGERY TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. SURF OF 5 TO 6 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL KEEP SUBSIDING THRU TONIGHT AND DROP TO BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.