Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Sep 2010 16:51:47 -0500

485 
FXPQ60 PGUM 292151
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
751 AM CHST THU SEP 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MARIANAS WATERS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS IS PART OF AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO RULE OUR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
THEREFORE MADE SURE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THEN. DID TRY TO REDUCE THE SHOWERS AT 4 AM...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE
MORNING THIS TURNED OUT TO BE A MISTAKE. ENDED UP UPDATING MY OWN
FORECAST. WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE-WIND SWELLS WILL DIP A LITTLE AND SWELL FROM FORMER TYPHOON
MALAKAS WILL FADE AWAY ENTIRELY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS TO
DROP ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO. THIS WILL ALLOW BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS TO
RETURN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AN EXTENSIVE BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN 
MICRONESIA. IT WILL PROLONG CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR MAJURO 
THRU THIS EVENING...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI INTO FRIDAY AND INTRODUCE 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CHUUK BY LATE TONIGHT. THE LACK OF STRONG 
TRADE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE BY THE 
WEEKEND AND ALLOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN TO ALL THE ABOVE 
LOCATIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TRADE SURGE CROSSING THE DATE LINE 
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGER MORE SHOWER 
ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION HAS FORMED JUST SOUTH OF GUAM AND IS APPROACHING 
YAP THIS MORNING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS 
WEAKENED LAST EVENING BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RE-GENERATING. IT IS 
ANTICIPATED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF YAP TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENTLE 
TRADES SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION...WEATHER OVER KOROR WILL BE 
CONTROLLED BY DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS WITH A SLIGHT THREAT OF 
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE CIRCULATION PULLING FARTHER 
NORTHWEST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY FRIDAY EVENING...IT WILL ALLOW 
DRIER TRADES NEAR THE EQUATOR...INDICATED BY LATEST WV IMAGERY TO 
ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. SURF 
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL KEEP SUBSIDING THRU 
TONIGHT AND DROP TO BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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