Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:13:19 -0500

653 
FXPQ60 PGUM 300813 AAA
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 PM CHST THU SEP 30 2010

MICRONESIAN SECTION ADDED

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS 
ACROSS THE MARIANAS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON MOVING THE DISTURBANCE NW OUT OF THE MARIANAS 
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SATELLITE AND RADAR BOTH SHOW THE MASS OF 
WEATHER WORKING SLOWLY NORTH AND NW. THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER 
OFF AROUND 10 PM...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER. DRYING IS 
INDICATED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FRI NITE ON...SO SHOULD BE A 
FAIRLY DRY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR WET SEASON.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH AND EAST SWELL CONTINUE TO FALL..AND RIP RISK SHOULD BE LOW BY 
FRIDAY MORNING. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. IT WILL 
PROLONG CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR MAJURO THRU THIS EVENING... 
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI INTO FRIDAY. THE LACK OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL 
EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE BY THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN TO ALL THE ABOVE LOCATIONS. BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK...A TRADE SURGE CROSSING THE DATE LINE IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGER MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 
EAST TO WEST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A RIDGE OVER YAP AND KOROR WILL KEEP YAP AND KOROR RELATIVELY DRY 
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE 
NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS 
SHOULD GIVE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CHUUK INTO FRIDAY AS DRY GENTLE TRADE 
WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. THE TROUGH RUNNING FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA 
WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT CHUUK LATE FRIDAY 
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKER TRADES BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE 
FAIR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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