From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 30 16:13:46 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8U8DjWc017618 for ; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:13:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8TLcU6H025335; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:13:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3670274 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:13:31 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8U8DVA8006071 for ; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:13:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8U8DLtW022597 for ; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:13:30 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6CCAA4050031; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:13:19 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20100930081321.6CCAA4050031@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:13:19 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 653 FXPQ60 PGUM 300813 AAA AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 600 PM CHST THU SEP 30 2010 MICRONESIAN SECTION ADDED .SYNOPSIS... A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MARIANAS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. && .DISCUSSION... GFS AND UKMET AGREE ON MOVING THE DISTURBANCE NW OUT OF THE MARIANAS LATE THIS EVENING...AND SATELLITE AND RADAR BOTH SHOW THE MASS OF WEATHER WORKING SLOWLY NORTH AND NW. THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF AROUND 10 PM...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER. DRYING IS INDICATED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FRI NITE ON...SO SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR WET SEASON. && .MARINE... NORTH AND EAST SWELL CONTINUE TO FALL..AND RIP RISK SHOULD BE LOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. IT WILL PROLONG CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR MAJURO THRU THIS EVENING... KOSRAE AND POHNPEI INTO FRIDAY. THE LACK OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE BY THE WEEKEND AND ALLOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN TO ALL THE ABOVE LOCATIONS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TRADE SURGE CROSSING THE DATE LINE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGER MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EAST TO WEST. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A RIDGE OVER YAP AND KOROR WILL KEEP YAP AND KOROR RELATIVELY DRY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS SHOULD GIVE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CHUUK INTO FRIDAY AS DRY GENTLE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA. THE TROUGH RUNNING FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT CHUUK LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKER TRADES BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE FAIR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.