Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:56:24 -0500

293 
FXPQ60 PGUM 302156
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
756 AM CHST FRI OCT 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF YAP AND PALAU AND NORTHEAST OF THE
MARIANAS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
NEAR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER IS DRYING OUT AS EXPECTED. INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT IN
THE MORNING. THEY ARE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING OUT THAN EXPECTED...
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE SO NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKY 
CONDITIONS WERE INCREASED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR BOTH PERIODS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD 
ACROSS POHNPEI...CLEARING OUT OF KOSRAE BY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWS 
RAPID CLEARING BY TOMORROW. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS 
WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND CHUUK THIS MORNING WILL PUSH NORTHWEST WITH 
AFTERNOON CLEARING SHORTLY BEHIND. AS THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI LIFTS 
NORTHWARD...MORE SHOWERS MAY SCRAPE BY CHUUK LATE TONIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY. GFS KEPT SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DECIDED 
TO KEEP CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. KOROR AND YAP ARE DRY FOR NOW WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 
DEVELOPING SHOWERS HALFWAY BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK COULD MOVE INTO YAP 
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO TELL WHETHER THESE SHOWERS ARE 
IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF INVEST AREA 94W AND WILL 
HOLD STEADY OR MOVE NORTH...OR MOVE TOWARDS YAP AND KOROR. THESE 
SHOWERS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY SHOULD AN AMENDMENT NEED TO BE 
MADE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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