From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 1 05:56:47 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8ULuk75031147 for ; Fri, 1 Oct 2010 05:56:47 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8UFoGEA025335; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:56:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3682280 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:56:31 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8ULuVPj013174 for ; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:56:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8ULuONw029212 for ; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:56:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id BA89A4050022; Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:56:24 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20100930215624.BA89A4050022@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:56:24 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 293 FXPQ60 PGUM 302156 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 756 AM CHST FRI OCT 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS. AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF YAP AND PALAU AND NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER IS DRYING OUT AS EXPECTED. INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT IN THE MORNING. THEY ARE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING OUT THAN EXPECTED... BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKY CONDITIONS WERE INCREASED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR BOTH PERIODS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS POHNPEI...CLEARING OUT OF KOSRAE BY THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWS RAPID CLEARING BY TOMORROW. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THIS WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND CHUUK THIS MORNING WILL PUSH NORTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON CLEARING SHORTLY BEHIND. AS THE TROUGH NEAR POHNPEI LIFTS NORTHWARD...MORE SHOWERS MAY SCRAPE BY CHUUK LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS KEPT SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DECIDED TO KEEP CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS. KOROR AND YAP ARE DRY FOR NOW WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEVELOPING SHOWERS HALFWAY BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK COULD MOVE INTO YAP TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO TELL WHETHER THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF INVEST AREA 94W AND WILL HOLD STEADY OR MOVE NORTH...OR MOVE TOWARDS YAP AND KOROR. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY SHOULD AN AMENDMENT NEED TO BE MADE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.