Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 1 Oct 2010 02:52:05 -0500

974 
FXPQ60 PGUM 010751
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 PM CHST FRI OCT 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH WEATHER MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS ON
THURSDAY HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS. PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS
A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF GUAM DEMINISHING AS THEY
APPROACH THE MARINE ZONE. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY
IMPROVED ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER IS DRYING OUT AS EXPECTED. CHANGED WINDS WITH GFS40 FOR
FIRST 3 PERIODS AND THEREAFTER WITH GFS75 THROUGH DAY 5. MOST
CHANGES WERE FOR A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WIND DIRECTION. OVERALL THE
FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OBSERVED IN THE 00Z MAJURO SOUNDING 
ALSO EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER 
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 
TROUGH APPROACHING THE DATE LINE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT MAJURO 
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND MAY REACH KOSRAE AND 
POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND 
CONVERGENCE WILL ARE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND WILL AFFECT POHNPEI 
TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE FOR THE 
REST OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR SHORT TERM CHANGES WERE 
MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER POHNPEI SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST AND MAY 
AFFECT CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER 
COVERAGE TO BE THE DOMINANT CONDITION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY 
A FEW CLOUDS OVER YAP AND KOROR AS A RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL 
ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A 
GENERAL TREND TOWARDS INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE YAP AND KOROR AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES
THE AREA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

GUARD/WILLIAMS

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