From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 1 15:52:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o917qWbX029500 for ; Fri, 1 Oct 2010 15:52:33 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8UEWSZ8023486; Fri, 1 Oct 2010 02:52:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3689400 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 1 Oct 2010 02:52:12 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o917qBif000832 for ; Fri, 1 Oct 2010 02:52:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o917q51D004172 for ; Fri, 1 Oct 2010 02:52:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 5F039108B0001; Fri, 1 Oct 2010 02:52:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101001075205.5F039108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 1 Oct 2010 02:52:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 974 FXPQ60 PGUM 010751 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 551 PM CHST FRI OCT 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH WEATHER MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS ON THURSDAY HAS MOVED WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS. PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF GUAM DEMINISHING AS THEY APPROACH THE MARINE ZONE. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER IS DRYING OUT AS EXPECTED. CHANGED WINDS WITH GFS40 FOR FIRST 3 PERIODS AND THEREAFTER WITH GFS75 THROUGH DAY 5. MOST CHANGES WERE FOR A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WIND DIRECTION. OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OBSERVED IN THE 00Z MAJURO SOUNDING ALSO EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE DATE LINE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT MAJURO BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND MAY REACH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL ARE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND WILL AFFECT POHNPEI TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR SHORT TERM CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER POHNPEI SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST AND MAY AFFECT CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE TO BE THE DOMINANT CONDITION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OVER YAP AND KOROR AS A RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE YAP AND KOROR AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ GUARD/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.