From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 2 15:39:10 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o927d97d021081 for ; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 15:39:09 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o91KZFvO025335; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 02:37:51 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3704516 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 02:37:51 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o927bpBv025588 for ; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 02:37:51 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o927bimZ008744 for ; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 02:37:50 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 630314050032; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 02:37:44 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101002073744.630314050032@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 2 Oct 2010 02:37:44 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 015 FXPQ60 PGUM 020737 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 537 PM CHST SAT OCT 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT EAST TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW ISLAND SHOWERS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST OF THE LARGER ISLANDS BUT NO LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED DUE LIMITED DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. && .DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. LIGHT EAST TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS UP TO AN APPRECIABLE HEIGHT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW THAT WILL PRODUCE A FEW ISLAND SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF APRA HARBOR. EVEN SO...00Z SOUNDING DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AT MID-LEVELS CONTINUES...LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING MAJURO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEKEND BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL RUNS EXISTS FOR THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD MAJURO AND IS LIKELY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY FOR THE MARSHALLS. ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS NWP MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ON THIS...THEY TEND TO DIVERGE MORE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WESTWARD TOWARDS POHNPEI BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY TOWARDS CHUUK BY MID WEEK. HERE THERE IS A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THE MOISTURE MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH AS IT PASSES THROUGH 160E TO 150E...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM OTHER WEAK WAVES THAT HAVE PASSED THROUGH THIS AREA OVER PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR KOSRAE AS IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... I SAW LITTLE TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THESE ISLANDS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. I DOUBT THAT THE WAVE CROSSING THE DATELINE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS YAP AND PALAU...BUT DID NOT FEEL IT NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THESE AREAS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. CHUUK IS ON THE BORDERLINE...AND IF THE AREA REACHES CHUUK...IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT IT BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. IN THE MEAN WHILE...CHUUK IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND WHICH WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CLOUD COVER IN AND BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ WILLIAMS/EDSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.