Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 2 Oct 2010 02:37:44 -0500

015 
FXPQ60 PGUM 020737
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
537 PM CHST SAT OCT 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT EAST TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW ISLAND SHOWERS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST OF THE
LARGER ISLANDS BUT NO LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED DUE LIMITED DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. LIGHT EAST TRADE
WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS UP TO AN APPRECIABLE HEIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW THAT WILL PRODUCE A FEW ISLAND SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF
APRA HARBOR. EVEN SO...00Z SOUNDING DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AT MID-LEVELS CONTINUES...LIMITING
INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING MAJURO WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEKEND BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL RUNS EXISTS FOR THIS
FORECAST TIME FRAME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD 
MAJURO AND IS LIKELY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY FOR THE MARSHALLS. ALTHOUGH THE
VARIOUS NWP MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO 
ON THIS...THEY TEND TO DIVERGE MORE AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WESTWARD TOWARDS 
POHNPEI BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY TOWARDS CHUUK BY MID 
WEEK. HERE THERE IS A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN AND MOVE THE MOISTURE
MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH AS IT PASSES THROUGH 160E TO 150E...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM OTHER WEAK WAVES THAT HAVE PASSED
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR KOSRAE AS IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT
MARINE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
I SAW LITTLE TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THESE ISLANDS FROM THE PREVIOUS 
RUN. I DOUBT THAT THE WAVE CROSSING THE DATELINE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR 
WEST AS YAP AND PALAU...BUT DID NOT FEEL IT NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE 
CLOUD COVER FOR THESE AREAS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. CHUUK IS ON THE 
BORDERLINE...AND IF THE AREA REACHES CHUUK...IT WILL LIKELY AFFECT 
IT BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. IN THE MEAN WHILE...CHUUK IS CURRENTLY JUST 
WEST OF A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND WHICH WILL 
PROBABLY KEEP THE CLOUD COVER IN AND BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TONIGHT 
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

WILLIAMS/EDSON

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