Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 2 Oct 2010 16:04:40 -0500

985 
FXPQ60 PGUM 022104
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
704 AM CHST SUN OCT 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25N FROM 140E TO
180. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR
YAP...JUST WEST OF CHUUK...AND OVER KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS KEEP THE MARIANAS HIGH AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWS NO REASON TO DISPUTE THAT. PREVIOUS PACKAGE DID AN EXCELLENT
JOB OF PORTRAYING THAT SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WHETHER OR
NOT THAT MOISTENING DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPENS REMAINS
TO BE SEEN...BUT BEING THAT THIS IS STILL WET SEASON FIGURED THAT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GFS40 DEVELOPS AN
OMEGA BULLSEYE THAT IT BRINGS OVER GUAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT THESE THINGS RARELY PAN OUT...THIS WAS ANOTHER GREAT REASON
TO TAKE THE REASONABLE FORECAST INHERITED AND LEAVE IT ALONE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERTAKEN MAJURO 
AND KWAJALEIN AND ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING KOSRAE THIS MORNING. ONLY 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WERE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR MAJURO AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WERE INTRODUCED TO KOSRAE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DEVELOPED A DECENT NORTH TO SOUTH SPREAD 
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MARSHALLS...POSSIBLY PUTTING KOSRAE 
UNDER THE GUN TONIGHT EARLIER THAN MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTION
IS STILL EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE AND WILL PASS THROUGH
POHNPEI MONDAY NIGHT. GFS INDICATES A SERIES OF WEAKER TROUGHS
WILL PASS THROUGH MAJURO NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT
UNTIL THAT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR
MAJURO BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL START THE DAY FOR YAP 
AND CHUUK. BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND 
SHOWERS NEARBY...BUT THE SHOWERS SEEM TO BE AVOIDING THE ISLANDS SO 
FAR. MODEL DATA INDICATED LITTLE ACTION FROM THESE AREAS WITH DRY 
CONDITIONS REGIONALLY. TOWARDS MIDWEEK...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE 
IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALLS MOVES WEST. 
GFS PARTICULARLY BUILDS IN THE SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR 
CHUUK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
FOR YAP AND KOROR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MAINTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS 
EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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