From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 3 05:05:07 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o92L55CH030379 for ; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 05:05:06 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o91KZFAS025335; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 16:04:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3708378 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 16:04:48 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o92L4lok021549 for ; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 16:04:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o92L4fRX016903 for ; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 16:04:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2E6524050032; Sat, 2 Oct 2010 16:04:40 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101002210441.2E6524050032@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 2 Oct 2010 16:04:40 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 985 FXPQ60 PGUM 022104 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 704 AM CHST SUN OCT 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25N FROM 140E TO 180. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR YAP...JUST WEST OF CHUUK...AND OVER KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS KEEP THE MARIANAS HIGH AND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS NO REASON TO DISPUTE THAT. PREVIOUS PACKAGE DID AN EXCELLENT JOB OF PORTRAYING THAT SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THAT MOISTENING DEPICTED FRIDAY NIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPENS REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT BEING THAT THIS IS STILL WET SEASON FIGURED THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. GFS40 DEVELOPS AN OMEGA BULLSEYE THAT IT BRINGS OVER GUAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THESE THINGS RARELY PAN OUT...THIS WAS ANOTHER GREAT REASON TO TAKE THE REASONABLE FORECAST INHERITED AND LEAVE IT ALONE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERTAKEN MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN AND ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING KOSRAE THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR MAJURO AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE INTRODUCED TO KOSRAE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DEVELOPED A DECENT NORTH TO SOUTH SPREAD AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MARSHALLS...POSSIBLY PUTTING KOSRAE UNDER THE GUN TONIGHT EARLIER THAN MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTION IS STILL EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE AND WILL PASS THROUGH POHNPEI MONDAY NIGHT. GFS INDICATES A SERIES OF WEAKER TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH MAJURO NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT UNTIL THAT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR MAJURO BEGINNING TUESDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL START THE DAY FOR YAP AND CHUUK. BOTH LOCATIONS HAVE POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOWERS NEARBY...BUT THE SHOWERS SEEM TO BE AVOIDING THE ISLANDS SO FAR. MODEL DATA INDICATED LITTLE ACTION FROM THESE AREAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS REGIONALLY. TOWARDS MIDWEEK...MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALLS MOVES WEST. GFS PARTICULARLY BUILDS IN THE SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR CHUUK...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR YAP AND KOROR WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MAINTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN CHUUK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.