Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Oct 2010 02:38:32 -0500

304 
FXPQ60 PGUM 030738
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
538 PM CHST SUN OCT 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR TODAY. A FEW
CUMULONIMBUS DEVELOPED WEST OF GUAM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
GUAM FOR THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS SEEM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DID OCCUR. ALSO RADAR DOES SHOW
DEVELOPING CBS WEST OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW
EAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK RANGING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST. SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON DID SHOW A CIRCULATION NEAR 9N152E AND A SECOND ONE NEAR
11N155E. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF GUAM COULD THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THEM MOVE ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. UKMET AND GFS HINT THAT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE AS THEY SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA IF THESE SHOWERS EAST OF 150E
PERSIST.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
SWELL WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. THIS INCREASE WILL PUSH
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LOW TO MODERATE ON EAST FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE 
TRAVERSING THE MARSHALLS SLOWLY STARTING TO REDEVELOP DURING THE 
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BACKED OFF DURATION 
OF SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE OVER MAJURO FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE 
FEATURE BRISKLY MOVES WESTWARD. IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM 
COLLAPSING CONVECTION THIS MORNING RECENTLY MOVED OVER KOSRAE WITH 
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN REPORTED FROM THE HANDAR BUT HEAVIER 
SHOWERS STILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. NONETHELESS 
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM AND AFFECT THE AREA 
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL A BIT SLOW IN BRINGING WET CONDITIONS TO 
POHNPEI BUT SHOULD START TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SMALL BUT PRONOUNCED TROUGH JUST NORTH OF CHUUK IS INDUCING SOME 
CONVECTION IN CHUUK WATERS BUT REMAINS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. MOSTLY 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE 
PASSING THE MARSHALLS ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS 
AS ITCZ SETS UP NEAR CHUUK LATER IN THE WEEK. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE 
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER YAP AND KOROR BY MIDWEEK 
BUT NO MAJOR FEATURE IS EXPECTED SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE 
EXTENT OF ACTIVITY WAS CONVEYED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

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