From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 3 15:39:05 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o937d4sD022403 for ; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 15:39:05 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o91KZFO5025335; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 02:38:40 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3711408 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 02:38:40 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o937cd4Z022439 for ; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 02:38:39 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o937cXgS011423 for ; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 02:38:39 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 29B98405007D; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 02:38:32 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101003073833.29B98405007D@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 3 Oct 2010 02:38:32 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 304 FXPQ60 PGUM 030738 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 538 PM CHST SUN OCT 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR TODAY. A FEW CUMULONIMBUS DEVELOPED WEST OF GUAM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF GUAM FOR THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS SEEM SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DID OCCUR. ALSO RADAR DOES SHOW DEVELOPING CBS WEST OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW EAST TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK RANGING FROM AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST. SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON DID SHOW A CIRCULATION NEAR 9N152E AND A SECOND ONE NEAR 11N155E. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF GUAM COULD THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THEM MOVE ACROSS THE MARIANAS. UKMET AND GFS HINT THAT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS THEY SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA IF THESE SHOWERS EAST OF 150E PERSIST. && .MARINE...EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SWELL WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. THIS INCREASE WILL PUSH THE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LOW TO MODERATE ON EAST FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE MARSHALLS SLOWLY STARTING TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BACKED OFF DURATION OF SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE OVER MAJURO FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FEATURE BRISKLY MOVES WESTWARD. IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM COLLAPSING CONVECTION THIS MORNING RECENTLY MOVED OVER KOSRAE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN REPORTED FROM THE HANDAR BUT HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. NONETHELESS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM AND AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL A BIT SLOW IN BRINGING WET CONDITIONS TO POHNPEI BUT SHOULD START TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SMALL BUT PRONOUNCED TROUGH JUST NORTH OF CHUUK IS INDUCING SOME CONVECTION IN CHUUK WATERS BUT REMAINS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSING THE MARSHALLS ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS AS ITCZ SETS UP NEAR CHUUK LATER IN THE WEEK. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER YAP AND KOROR BY MIDWEEK BUT NO MAJOR FEATURE IS EXPECTED SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF ACTIVITY WAS CONVEYED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.