From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 4 05:04:12 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o93L4Bo0027964 for ; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 05:04:11 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o939t3Jb025335; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:03:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3719254 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:03:48 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o93L3mni010812 for ; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:03:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o93L3fBK000984 for ; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:03:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id CE8954050154; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:03:41 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101003210341.CE8954050154@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:03:41 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 493 FXPQ60 PGUM 032103 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 703 AM CHST MON OCT 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20N AND 25N FROM 130E AND 150E... AND BETWEEN 15N AND 25N FROM 164E TO 177E. TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST WEST OF CHUUK AND OVER KOSRAE AND MAJURO. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS... INDICATING THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES WHILE THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH. THEREFORE 10 DAYS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS LOOKED JUST FINE AND NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE BRINGS SOME CLOUDS IN FRIDAY...THIS STILL BEING WET SEASON THIS IS PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAN NOT SO LEFT THAT UNCHANGED AS WELL. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALLS YESTERDAY QUICKLY FADED OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A NEWLY-FORMED LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM KOSRAE TO KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOSRAE FOR THE EARLY PART OF TODAY WHILE THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD PULL OUT OF MAJURO BY TONIGHT LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD...EVENTUALLY REACHING POHNPEI BY WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST FOR THE WEEK WITH SEAS AVERAGING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION AT THE SOUTH END OF A TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD FROM CHUUK HAS REMAINED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STEADILY MOVING OUT OF THE CHUUK AREA AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ITCZ SETTING UP NEAR CHUUK AND POHNPEI BY TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP BY LATE TUESDAY AND PALAU BY THURSDAY. MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY IN ADDITION TO AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED IN THAT CHANGE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.