Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:03:41 -0500

493 
FXPQ60 PGUM 032103
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
703 AM CHST MON OCT 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20N AND 25N FROM 130E AND 150E...
AND BETWEEN 15N AND 25N FROM 164E TO 177E. TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES
ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST WEST OF CHUUK AND OVER KOSRAE
AND MAJURO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST ZONES WHILE THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH. THEREFORE 10 DAYS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS LOOKED
JUST FINE AND NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
BRINGS SOME CLOUDS IN FRIDAY...THIS STILL BEING WET SEASON THIS IS
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY THAN NOT SO LEFT THAT UNCHANGED AS WELL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
REMNANTS OF DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALLS 
YESTERDAY QUICKLY FADED OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A NEWLY-FORMED LINE 
OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM KOSRAE TO KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO. THIS 
CONVECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOSRAE FOR THE EARLY PART 
OF TODAY WHILE THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD PULL OUT OF 
MAJURO BY TONIGHT LEAVING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. 
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD...EVENTUALLY REACHING POHNPEI BY 
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST FOR THE WEEK WITH SEAS 
AVERAGING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION AT THE SOUTH END OF A TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD 
FROM CHUUK HAS REMAINED FAIRLY ACTIVE THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STEADILY MOVING OUT OF 
THE CHUUK AREA AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ITCZ SETTING UP NEAR CHUUK AND POHNPEI 
BY TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK. CONVECTION 
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP BY LATE 
TUESDAY AND PALAU BY THURSDAY. MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY IN ADDITION TO 
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER 
COVERAGE FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WIND SHIFT TO 
THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ADDED IN THAT CHANGE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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