From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 4 05:42:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o93LgRr4030126 for ; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 05:42:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o939t3Ka025335; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:42:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3719433 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:42:13 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o93LgDTP012662 for ; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:42:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o93Lg6kc005348 for ; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:42:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 970C1405015D; Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:42:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101003214206.970C1405015D@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:42:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 032130 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/032130Z-040600ZOCT2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.OE, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 22 KNOTS AND 1006.2 MB PRESSURE AND DANANG, VIETNAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, IS REPORTING A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB (A 4 MB DROP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS). ADDITIONALLY, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (REPORTS OF 84 DEGREES C) AND MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. WHILE A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL IL-DEFINED AND IS TRACKING CLOSER TO LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR, BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.