Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Oct 2010 16:42:06 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 032130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/032130Z-040600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
111.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.OE, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
INDICATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 22 KNOTS AND 1006.2 MB
PRESSURE AND DANANG, VIETNAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, IS REPORTING A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB (A
4 MB DROP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS). ADDITIONALLY, ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (REPORTS OF 84
DEGREES C) AND MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. WHILE A DISTINCT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL IL-DEFINED AND IS TRACKING CLOSER
TO LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR, BASED ON
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR//

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