Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2010 15:42:05 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042100Z-050600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 14.8N 110.7E
HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO NEAR 17.0N 108.8E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM. A 04/12Z 200MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE, AND
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS POLAR OUTFLOW.
CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND A 041422Z
ASCAT PASS INDICATES SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK HAVE
INCREASED TO OVER 20 KNOTS. MUCH OF THE SURGE IN CONVECTION IS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL MAXIMUM AND AN EXTENDED
REGION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT BEGINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF VIETNAM AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO HAINAN ISLAND. A DISTINCT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VIETNAM TO THE PARACEL ISLANDS.
SEA TEMPERATURES ARE WARM THROUGHOUT THE REGION, BUT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS CONSTRAINED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3.  JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B(1) TO
FAIR.//

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