From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 5 04:44:24 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o94KiNXM015465 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 04:44:24 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94HVbsN025335; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 15:44:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3738233 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 15:44:12 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94KiCC7009452 for ; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 15:44:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94Ki5w5013062 for ; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 15:44:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A662A405016C; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 15:44:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101004204405.A662A405016C@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2010 15:44:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 042100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042100Z-050600ZOCT2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 14.8N 110.7E HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO NEAR 17.0N 108.8E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM. A 04/12Z 200MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS POLAR OUTFLOW. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND A 041422Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 20 KNOTS. MUCH OF THE SURGE IN CONVECTION IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL MAXIMUM AND AN EXTENDED REGION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAT BEGINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM AND EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO HAINAN ISLAND. A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VIETNAM TO THE PARACEL ISLANDS. SEA TEMPERATURES ARE WARM THROUGHOUT THE REGION, BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS CONSTRAINED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B(1) TO FAIR.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.