Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2010 16:27:59 -0500

022 
FXPQ60 PGUM 042127
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
727 AM CHST TUE OCT 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N 130E TO 25N 133E AND FARTHER
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
ALONG AND UP TO 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 17N AND 25N FROM 157E TO 168E...INCLUDING WAKE ISLAND.
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 6N AND 11N FROM 136E TO 175E...WHICH
INCLUDES YAP...CHUUK...POHNPEI...KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND THE
UPPER LOWS ARE STAYING MAINLY TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. ISLAND EFFECT AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVIOUS PACKAGE HANDLED THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD SOME THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS JUST NORTH OF POHNPEI AND MAJURO WITH 
KOSRAE WELL-SEPARATED FROM THE ACTIVITY. MAJURO...BEING ON THE 
EASTERN END OF CONVECTION...SHOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS 
LINGERING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DROPPING TO ISOLATED TONIGHT. MODELS 
INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MAJURO BY THE END OF 
THE WEEK AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A 
FEW PERIODS OF DECREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AT POHNPEI 
TODAY AND TOMORROW...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MORE LIKELY BE THE NORM 
AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE KEEPS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AREA 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK CURRENTLY SITS IN THE HEART OF THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
IN ALL DIRECTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL 
THE CENTER OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST. A CLUSTER 
OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR YAP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION EDGING 
SOUTHWESTWARD. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE DAY AT YAP AND WILL SPREAD TO PALAU BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AT 
BOTH LOCATIONS UNTIL ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE AREA 
FROM THE EAST...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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