From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 5 05:28:29 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o94LSSbv017860 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 05:28:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94HVb02025335; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 16:28:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3739073 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 16:28:11 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94LSBJE014782 for ; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 16:28:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94LS2jG012917 for ; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 16:28:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id AD512405016B; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 16:27:59 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101004212802.AD512405016B@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2010 16:27:59 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 022 FXPQ60 PGUM 042127 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 727 AM CHST TUE OCT 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N 130E TO 25N 133E AND FARTHER NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ALONG AND UP TO 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 17N AND 25N FROM 157E TO 168E...INCLUDING WAKE ISLAND. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 6N AND 11N FROM 136E TO 175E...WHICH INCLUDES YAP...CHUUK...POHNPEI...KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO. && .DISCUSSION... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS STAYING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER LOWS ARE STAYING MAINLY TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS FORECAST LOOKS GREAT. ISLAND EFFECT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO IGNITE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HANDLED THIS WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD SOME THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS JUST NORTH OF POHNPEI AND MAJURO WITH KOSRAE WELL-SEPARATED FROM THE ACTIVITY. MAJURO...BEING ON THE EASTERN END OF CONVECTION...SHOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DROPPING TO ISOLATED TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MAJURO BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF DECREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AT POHNPEI TODAY AND TOMORROW...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MORE LIKELY BE THE NORM AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE KEEPS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK CURRENTLY SITS IN THE HEART OF THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ALL DIRECTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA UNTIL THE CENTER OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR YAP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION EDGING SOUTHWESTWARD. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT YAP AND WILL SPREAD TO PALAU BY THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AT BOTH LOCATIONS UNTIL ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.