From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 5 07:25:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o94NPbDx025225 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 07:25:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94HVb9I025335; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 18:19:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3740487 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 18:19:16 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94NJG2D024810 for ; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 18:19:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o94NJ9Ua012917 for ; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 18:19:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6F2D6405016B; Mon, 4 Oct 2010 18:19:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101004231909.6F2D6405016B@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2010 18:19:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 042300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.0N 108.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 108.8E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 041857Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMMA-SHAPED BAND FEEDING INTO WHAT IS LIKELY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER ASCAT VERIFIES A LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING OFF OF EASTERN CHINA CONVERGES INTO THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC IS UNCERTAIN. VIGOROUS POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS HELPED TO FUEL THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 052300Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.