Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2010 18:19:09 -0500

WTPN21 PGTW 042300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.0N 108.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.8E.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 108.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 041857Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
COMMA-SHAPED BAND FEEDING INTO WHAT IS LIKELY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER ASCAT VERIFIES A LARGE
CYCLONIC WIND FIELD WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING OFF OF EASTERN
CHINA CONVERGES INTO THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF THE
LLCC IS UNCERTAIN. VIGOROUS POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS HELPED TO FUEL THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHING THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052300Z.//

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