Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 02:56:35 -0500

509 
FXPQ60 PGUM 050756
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
556 PM CHST TUE OCT 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE NIXED
THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WIND WILL BE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY BY MIDNIGHT. 
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF 160E. NOT
CERTAIN IF THE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO THE MARIANAS SO LEFT IT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH UKMET DOES HINT AT AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. ALSO NOT CERTAIN ABOUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. IT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN BUT LEFT
IN FORECAST BECAUSE DID NOT WANT TO FLIP-FLOP THE FORECAST. WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT PROGRESSES BEFORE CHANGING THIS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TRADE-WIND GENERATED SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE A SURF OF 5 TO 7 FEET AND A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS SURGED ACROSS MICRONESIA TODAY...THE FIRST WEST 
OF POHNPEI AND THE SECOND WEST OF KWAJALEIN...APPROACHING KOSRAE.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST NORTH OF POHNPEI AND WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH. KOSRAE HAD THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH A
BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS WILL PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE
AND MOVE THROUGH POHNPEI TOMORROW. ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 170W IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA CORRELATE WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
AND THUS ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SIMILAR TO THE EAST...SHOWER 
SURGES ARE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION IN A COUPLE AREAS. ONE IS 
MOVING WEST OF KOROR AND A LARGER ONE...EXTENDING FROM ALMOST SOUTH 
OF YAP TO CHUUK IS SLOWLY CLEARING OUT OF CHUUK. THE FORECAST HAS 
SHOWERS REDUCED TO ISOLATED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
AS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWERS UNTIL ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS 
APPROACHES CHUUK. MODEL DATA KEEPS SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL 
THREE LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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