From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 5 15:56:59 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o957uvcD006580 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 15:56:58 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o955FgYg025335; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 02:56:42 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3746644 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 02:56:42 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o957uf8M008954 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 02:56:41 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o957uZE1028584 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 02:56:41 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 61DF5405016A; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 02:56:35 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101005075635.61DF5405016A@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 02:56:35 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 509 FXPQ60 PGUM 050756 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 556 PM CHST TUE OCT 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... WITH THE DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE NIXED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WIND WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE EASTERLY BY MIDNIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF 160E. NOT CERTAIN IF THE SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO THE MARIANAS SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH UKMET DOES HINT AT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY. ALSO NOT CERTAIN ABOUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. IT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN BUT LEFT IN FORECAST BECAUSE DID NOT WANT TO FLIP-FLOP THE FORECAST. WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT PROGRESSES BEFORE CHANGING THIS. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND GENERATED SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE A SURF OF 5 TO 7 FEET AND A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS SURGED ACROSS MICRONESIA TODAY...THE FIRST WEST OF POHNPEI AND THE SECOND WEST OF KWAJALEIN...APPROACHING KOSRAE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST NORTH OF POHNPEI AND WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. KOSRAE HAD THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS WILL PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND MOVE THROUGH POHNPEI TOMORROW. ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 170W IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA CORRELATE WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THUS ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SIMILAR TO THE EAST...SHOWER SURGES ARE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION IN A COUPLE AREAS. ONE IS MOVING WEST OF KOROR AND A LARGER ONE...EXTENDING FROM ALMOST SOUTH OF YAP TO CHUUK IS SLOWLY CLEARING OUT OF CHUUK. THE FORECAST HAS SHOWERS REDUCED TO ISOLATED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWERS UNTIL ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHES CHUUK. MODEL DATA KEEPS SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THREE LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.