Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 14w (fourteen) Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 03:55:15 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 109.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 109.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 19.9N 109.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 20.1N 109.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 20.3N 109.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.2N 110.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 109.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAKENING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CMA RADAR
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A
050255Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING NUMEROUS 30 KNOT VECTORS OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ZJHK, EAST OF THE
SYSTEM, INDICATE 090/20 KNOTS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE FIRST WARNING WITH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. TD 14W IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) AND LAND INTERACTION. VWS
IS STRONG TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DUE TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN
CHINA, AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 40-50 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA AS INDICATED ON THE LATEST 200/300MB ANALYSES. THEREFORE, TD
14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD UNDER A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND 48. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY
WEAKEN EARLIER AND EITHER REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFT
WESTWARD DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS/GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS FORECAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD HONG KONG
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE/STRONG VWS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//

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