From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 5 16:55:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o958tcOw013454 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 16:55:39 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o955FgZa025335; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 03:55:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3747122 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 03:55:22 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o958tLsR013116 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 03:55:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o958tFlM027732 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 03:55:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 5F0C4405016C; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 03:55:15 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101005085515.5F0C4405016C@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 03:55:15 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 14w (fourteen) Warning Nr 002 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 109.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 109.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 19.9N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 20.1N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 20.3N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 20.2N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 109.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI- CIRCLE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CMA RADAR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A 050255Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING NUMEROUS 30 KNOT VECTORS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ZJHK, EAST OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATE 090/20 KNOTS. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE FIRST WARNING WITH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. TD 14W IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) AND LAND INTERACTION. VWS IS STRONG TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DUE TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CHINA, AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF 40-50 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AS INDICATED ON THE LATEST 200/300MB ANALYSES. THEREFORE, TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN EARLIER AND EITHER REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFT WESTWARD DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS/GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD HONG KONG INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE/STRONG VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.