From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 6 03:30:49 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o95JUm9H006611 for ; Wed, 6 Oct 2010 03:30:48 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o955FgGE025335; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 14:30:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3754347 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 14:30:31 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o95JUVQS018588 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 14:30:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o95JUO9g026923 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 14:30:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 23518405016C; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 14:30:24 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101005193024.23518405016C@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 14:30:23 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 121 FXPQ60 PGUM 051930 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 530 AM CHST WED OCT 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF GUAM...BUT MOST ARE GENERALLY DISSIPATING AS THEY NEAR THE MARIANAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF CHUUK...BEGINNING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OF 10N. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE CONVECTION GENERALLY LIES SOUTH OF 13N...SO IF THE TREND FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...GUAM AND ROTA MAY SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE CHANCE OF ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AFTER THURSDAY...GFS HAS SCALED BACK ON SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE GRIDS. ALSO...HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE WEEKEND SINCE GFS TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTION IS INDICATING DRIER MID- LEVELS THAN BEFORE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 5N AND 10N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS...THE FIRST IS JUST WEST OF POHNPEI AND THE SECOND IS WEST OF KWAJALEIN. THE LATTER AREA SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AND DELIVER INCREASED SHOWERS FOR KOSRAE TODAY AND THEN POHNPEI TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 170W IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SIMILAR TO EASTERN MICRONESIA WITH PATCHES OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN A GENERALLY EAST FLOW. SATELLITE SHOWS THE MAJOR PORTION OF CONVECTION BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK STATES. MODEL BASICALLY KEEPS THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION WITH CHUUK RESORTING TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ W. AYDLETT/MILLER +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.