Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 14:30:23 -0500

121 
FXPQ60 PGUM 051930
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
530 AM CHST WED OCT 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF GUAM...BUT MOST ARE GENERALLY
DISSIPATING AS THEY NEAR THE MARIANAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPER CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF CHUUK...BEGINNING TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD OF 10N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL RUNS INDICATE A SMALL INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE CONVECTION GENERALLY LIES SOUTH OF 13N...SO IF THE TREND
FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...GUAM AND ROTA MAY SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE CHANCE OF ISLAND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AFTER THURSDAY...GFS HAS
SCALED BACK ON SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE
GRIDS. ALSO...HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THE WEEKEND SINCE GFS
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTION IS INDICATING DRIER MID- LEVELS THAN
BEFORE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE COVERS THE AREA 
BETWEEN 5N AND 10N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF 
SHOWERS...THE FIRST IS JUST WEST OF POHNPEI AND THE SECOND IS WEST 
OF KWAJALEIN. THE LATTER AREA SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AND DELIVER 
INCREASED SHOWERS FOR KOSRAE TODAY AND THEN POHNPEI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 170W IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO MAJURO
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SIMILAR TO EASTERN MICRONESIA WITH PATCHES OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN A 
GENERALLY EAST FLOW. SATELLITE SHOWS THE MAJOR PORTION OF CONVECTION
BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK STATES. MODEL BASICALLY KEEPS THE CLOUDINESS
OVER THE REGION WITH CHUUK RESORTING TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/MILLER

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