Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 14w (fourteen) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 15:29:07 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 110.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 110.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 20.3N 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 20.4N 110.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.5N 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 20.5N 111.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 110.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS, TD 14W CROSSED
OVER HAINAN ISLAND WITHOUT WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE AND HAINAN ISLAND ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM DESPITE ITS RETURN TO AN OVER-WATER TRACK. FROM TAU 24
THROUGH TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A ZONE OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH VWS INCREASING TO OVER 30 KNOTS
POLEWARD OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAD BEEN SUSTAINING
THE SYSTEM EVEN AS IT MADE AN OVER-LAND TRACK IS SHOWING THE EARLY
SIGNS OF SUPRESSION IN ADVANCE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING NEAR SHANGHAI IS
PUMPING MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TD 14W
MOVES TOWARD THE ZONE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE RESULTING
COMBINATION OF VWS IN THE UPPER LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE INFLOW OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CAP OFF
DEVELOPMENT OF TD 14W BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. THE NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
//

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