From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 6 04:29:25 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o95KTOmZ014701 for ; Wed, 6 Oct 2010 04:29:25 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9550QEV025680; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 15:29:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3755002 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 15:29:13 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o95KTDMx024311 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 15:29:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o95KT7Dn006095 for ; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 15:29:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 18EB8405016C; Tue, 5 Oct 2010 15:29:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101005202907.18EB8405016C@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2010 15:29:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 14w (fourteen) Warning Nr 004 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 110.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 110.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 20.3N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 20.4N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 20.5N 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 20.5N 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 110.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS, TD 14W CROSSED OVER HAINAN ISLAND WITHOUT WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE AND HAINAN ISLAND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM DESPITE ITS RETURN TO AN OVER-WATER TRACK. FROM TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A ZONE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH VWS INCREASING TO OVER 30 KNOTS POLEWARD OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAD BEEN SUSTAINING THE SYSTEM EVEN AS IT MADE AN OVER-LAND TRACK IS SHOWING THE EARLY SIGNS OF SUPRESSION IN ADVANCE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING NEAR SHANGHAI IS PUMPING MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TD 14W MOVES TOWARD THE ZONE OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE RESULTING COMBINATION OF VWS IN THE UPPER LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE INFLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CAP OFF DEVELOPMENT OF TD 14W BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. THE NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. // +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.