Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2010 13:37:54 -0500

500 
FXPQ60 PGUM 061837
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
437 AM CHST THU OCT 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE 
MARIANA ISLANDS HAS TRIGGERED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE GUAM AND ROTA ZONES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT OVERALL AND INDICATE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AT TIMES FROM SW 
AND W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANAS BY THE COMING WEEK. MOST MODELS ALSO 
INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF YAP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO MARINE AND SURF FORECAST WORDING.
TRADE-WIND GENERATED COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
THIS WEEKEND...THEN WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAJURO STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS WESTWARD BUT MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF KOSRAE. AN ACTIVE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AT POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT BUT EFFECTS FROM THE
DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARSHALLS ARE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THAT
MODELS TEND TO WASH OUT FEATURE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. THE
ITCZ IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF YAP AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH 
OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR YAP TODAY GIVEN THE 
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LOW. MODELS INDICATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL 
WEAKEN AND IN RESPONSE...REDUCE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF 
MICRONESIA INCLUDING YAP AND KOROR. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ SHOULD PERSIST OVER CHUUK THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT BEFORE
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/WILLIAMS

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