From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 7 07:30:45 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o96NUhI7028329 for ; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 07:30:44 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o96GFTHp025680; Wed, 6 Oct 2010 18:30:28 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3778507 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 6 Oct 2010 18:30:27 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o96NURcI000107 for ; Wed, 6 Oct 2010 18:30:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o96NUKBe016673 for ; Wed, 6 Oct 2010 18:30:26 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 76237405016A; Wed, 6 Oct 2010 18:30:20 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101006233020.76237405016A@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 6 Oct 2010 18:30:20 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 343 FXPQ60 PGUM 062330 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 930 AM CHST THU OCT 7 2010 .UPDATE... LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WAVE SOUTH OF GUAM STAYING SOUTH OF THE GUAM COASTAL WATERS LEAVING GUAM AND ROTA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NWP MODELS SINCE 12Z HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF OF THIS FORECAST AS MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE PAST QUICKLY TO THE WEST OVER NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CHST THU OCT 7 2010/ SYNOPSIS... DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAS TRIGGERED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE GUAM AND ROTA ZONES OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVERALL AND INDICATE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AT TIMES FROM SW AND W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANAS BY THE COMING WEEK. MOST MODELS ALSO INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF YAP EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINE... SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO MARINE AND SURF FORECAST WORDING. TRADE-WIND GENERATED COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS WEEKEND...THEN WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY. EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAJURO STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS WESTWARD BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE. AN ACTIVE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT BUT EFFECTS FROM THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARSHALLS ARE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THAT MODELS TEND TO WASH OUT FEATURE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. THE ITCZ IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY THE WEEKEND. WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF YAP AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR YAP TODAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LOW. MODELS INDICATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND IN RESPONSE...REDUCE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING YAP AND KOROR. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ SHOULD PERSIST OVER CHUUK THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ EDSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.