From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 7 15:45:11 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o977j9kF020303 for ; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 15:45:10 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9750aou026480; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 02:44:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3783145 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 02:44:48 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o977im11011009 for ; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 02:44:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o977ifcr027253 for ; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 02:44:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8D7244050173; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 02:44:41 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101007074441.8D7244050173@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 7 Oct 2010 02:44:41 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 451 FXPQ60 PGUM 070744 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 544 PM CHST THU OCT 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE MARIANAS IS HELPING TO GENERATE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HOWEVER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOST OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ POSITIONED NEAR 10N THIS WEEK...ANY PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY TRAVEL JUST SOUTH OF THE GUAM COASTAL WATERS. && .DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MOST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE SYNOPSIS...ANY SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY BRING WEATHER OVER THE MARIANAS...ESPECIALLY GUAM AND ROTA. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE WINDS AND WEATHER SO THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSEST TO THE MARIANAS ON SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY. OF INTEREST IS THE TENDENCY FOR SEVERAL NWP MODELS TO GIN UP A GOOD SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS ITCZ DISTURBANCE ABOUT 200 TO 300 MILES TO OUR WEST BY NEXT TUESDAY. THIS COULD HAVE AN AFFECT OF MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER OUR AREA AS WELL AS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...EVEN IF IT DOES NOT DEVELOP NEAR US. OF COURSE...ANY DEVELOPMENT IS YET TO BE SEEN AS THE SHEAR IS STILL QUITE STRONG EVERYWHERE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND PERHAPS THE PHILIPPINE COASTAL WATERS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH COUPLED WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS WESTWARD BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KOSRAE. AN ACTIVE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT BUT EFFECTS FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALLS IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THAT MODELS TEND TO WASH OUT THE FEATURE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. THE ITCZ IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH OVER YAP AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR YAP TONIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LOW. MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND IN RESPONSE...REDUCE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING OVER YAP AND KOROR. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ SHOULD PERSIST OVER CHUUK THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY SATURDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ EDSON/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.