Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 7 Oct 2010 14:25:20 -0500

459 
FXPQ60 PGUM 071925
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
525 AM CHST FRI OCT 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF GUAM IS CAUSING CLOUDINESS AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ WERE DEVELOPING NEAR YAP AND ACROSS PARTS OF MICRONESIA 
FROM EAST TO WEST ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5N TO 12N. PGUA RADAR HAS BEEN 
SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM ENE TO WSW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOST MODELS INITIALIZE DECENTLY AND GENERALLY INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ITCZ WILL AT TIMES DRIFT NORTHWARD TO ABOUT
15N IN THE COMING DAYS. NO CHANGES TO GRIDS SINCE CURRENT FORECAST
SEEMS REASONABLE AND IS BUILT AROUND GENTLE TRADE WINDS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY THIS WEEKEND. LATER FORECASTS
MIGHT BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE PARTICULAR SHOWER EVENTS AS THEY BECOME
MORE APPARENT. ALSO...NOGAPS IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT A CIRCULATION MIGHT SPIN UP IN AN AREA TO THE N-NW OF YAP BY
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO MARINE GRIDS THROUGH TUE...BUT WW3 AND NOGAPS MODELS 
INDICATE LARGER WAVES COULD ARRIVE NEAR SAIPAN AREA BY WED FROM A
STORM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARSHALL 
ISLANDS. EXPECT THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PASS NORTH OF MAJURO 
TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT MOVEMENT OR 
REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD MAY AFFECT MAJURO LATER TODAY. A SIMILAR 
SITUATION IS OCCURRING AT POHNPEI WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS 
TO THE NORTH. AS ITCZ MOVES A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ REMAINS OVER 
YAP AND KOROR. SATELLITE SHOWS MOST INTENSE CONVECTION JUST TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF YAP BUT MODELS BRING THIS AREA CLOSER TO YAP TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND 
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH 
KOROR AND YAP. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CHUUK TODAY 
BUT RECENT LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS 
IN CHUUK WATERS TODAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/WILLIAMS

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