From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 8 03:25:48 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o97JPk5X028997 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 03:25:47 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9750aZH026480; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 14:25:28 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3790664 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 14:25:28 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o97JPS4H025592 for ; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 14:25:28 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o97JPLLE001435 for ; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 14:25:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0C80E4050175; Thu, 7 Oct 2010 14:25:20 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101007192521.0C80E4050175@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 7 Oct 2010 14:25:20 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 459 FXPQ60 PGUM 071925 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 525 AM CHST FRI OCT 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF GUAM IS CAUSING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WERE DEVELOPING NEAR YAP AND ACROSS PARTS OF MICRONESIA FROM EAST TO WEST ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5N TO 12N. PGUA RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM ENE TO WSW. && .DISCUSSION... MOST MODELS INITIALIZE DECENTLY AND GENERALLY INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ITCZ WILL AT TIMES DRIFT NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 15N IN THE COMING DAYS. NO CHANGES TO GRIDS SINCE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE AND IS BUILT AROUND GENTLE TRADE WINDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY THIS WEEKEND. LATER FORECASTS MIGHT BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE PARTICULAR SHOWER EVENTS AS THEY BECOME MORE APPARENT. ALSO...NOGAPS IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION MIGHT SPIN UP IN AN AREA TO THE N-NW OF YAP BY THE COMING WEEK. && .MARINE... NO CHANGES TO MARINE GRIDS THROUGH TUE...BUT WW3 AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE LARGER WAVES COULD ARRIVE NEAR SAIPAN AREA BY WED FROM A STORM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EXPECT THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PASS NORTH OF MAJURO TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT MOVEMENT OR REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD MAY AFFECT MAJURO LATER TODAY. A SIMILAR SITUATION IS OCCURRING AT POHNPEI WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. AS ITCZ MOVES A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ REMAINS OVER YAP AND KOROR. SATELLITE SHOWS MOST INTENSE CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF YAP BUT MODELS BRING THIS AREA CLOSER TO YAP TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KOROR AND YAP. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CHUUK TODAY BUT RECENT LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN CHUUK WATERS TODAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ SIMPSON/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.