From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 8 15:55:10 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o987t96E031635 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 15:55:10 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o97KN9Gj026480; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 02:54:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3798927 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 02:54:47 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o987sltK023502 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 02:54:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o987sebM028699 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 02:54:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id AD09B4050175; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 02:54:40 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101008075440.AD09B4050175@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2010 02:54:40 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 448 FXPQ60 PGUM 080754 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 554 PM CHST FRI OCT 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE GUAM MARINE ZONE. FORECAST IS FOR THESE SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO THE AREA UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH FULL EYE ON DEVELOPMENT AS THE COMPUTER MODELS ALL ARE ITCHING TO PUT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL OF DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THE ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF US ALL DAY...AS PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS NWP MODELS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LONGER WILL EVERYTHING STAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOWING EVIDENCE IN THE WATER VAPOR OF PULLING OUT AND BEING REPLACED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...DIVERGENCE. I HAVE TRIED TO KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS...FOR NOW...AS NO DISTINCT FEATURE HAS APPEARED IN ANY OF THE DATA...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SYNOPTIC...AND SCATTEROMETER. THE SCENARIOS ARE VARIOUS WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS...NOGAPS AND ECMWF GOING WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AROUND 138 TO 140E...JMA AND UKMET SHOW MONSOON TROUGHING ALONG 10 TO 12N...AND PERHAPS A WEAKER CIRCULATION LATER NEAR 137E. GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH TWO CIRCULATIONS FORMING OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...ONE WEAKER ONE TO OUR WEST SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS...AND ONE TO OUR EAST...WHICH PLACES IT PRACTICALLY OVER HEAD BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IN AN ATTEMPT NOT TO MAKE THIS TOO COMPLICATED...I REPLACED THE CIRCULATION IN THE GFS GRIDS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. CLOUDS AND PRECIP REMAIN THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING THE SHOWERS TO SCATTERED ON SUNDAY AS THIS SEEMED TO BE THE ONE CONSENSUS WITH ALL MODELS. && .MARINE...OUTSIDE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS SEEN IN THE WW3 AS WINDS AND WIND WAVES REMAIN LOW. I DID INCREASE THE SWELLS AND COMBINED SEAS A BIT BY MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES TO REFLECT A REFLECTION OF SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH FROM A FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF JAPAN. && .TROPICAL SYSTEMS...SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NO FEATURE OF CONCERN IS EVIDENT AS OF YET. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ITCZ OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD AS FORECAST...LEAVING MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PRIMARILY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS THE ITCZ MOVES A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND KOROR. THREE OF FOUR MODELS SPIN THIS AREA UP TO A CIRCULATION AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF YAP AND KOROR ON SUNDAY. A RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KOROR AND YAP. ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CHUUK TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RECENT LIGHTNING AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER CHUUK WATERS TONIGHT...AND KOROR AND YAP WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ EDSON/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.