From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 8 21:38:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o98DcXEp017503 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 21:38:33 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o97B01ED026933; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 08:38:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3800455 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 08:38:14 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o98DcEOo021312 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 08:38:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o98Dc7ig020293 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 08:38:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 814004050176; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 08:38:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101008133807.814004050176@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2010 08:38:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 081400 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081400Z-090600ZOCT2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.1E, TRACKING ALONG THE COAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 080153Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE ISLAND WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HAINAN ISLAND ARE REPORTING A MEAN SURFACE LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB WITH 06 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. A 081222Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH CURVED INFLOW INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS POOR.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.