Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2010 08:38:07 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 081400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081400Z-090600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
108.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.1E, TRACKING ALONG THE COAST
OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE EAST. A 080153Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE
ISLAND WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF HAINAN ISLAND ARE REPORTING A MEAN SURFACE LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1006 MB WITH 06 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 115.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. A 081222Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH CURVED INFLOW
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS POOR.//

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