From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 9 05:08:02 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o98L81p2006309 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 05:08:02 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o98HKq3Q026480; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 16:07:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3806448 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 16:07:48 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o98L7mG4007641 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 16:07:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o98L7f42020074 for ; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 16:07:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C5E0E4050176; Fri, 8 Oct 2010 16:07:41 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101008210741.C5E0E4050176@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2010 16:07:41 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 542 FXPQ60 PGUM 082107 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 707 AM CHST SAT OCT 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. ONE TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST IS MOVING AWAY. A SECOND TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF CHUUK WILL MOVE WEST AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. USED UKMET WINDS FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THEY LOOKED MORE REPRESENTATIVE. LEFT REST AS IS SINCE MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS. MODELS KEEP WANTING TO DEVELOP A CIRCULATION OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDE A SECOND CIRCULATION OVER THE MARIANAS WHICH COMPLICATES THE WIND FORECAST. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT ANY CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP SO BETTER TO LEAVE FORECAST AS IS UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN. IN THE NEAR TERM LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE IS IN RESPONSE TO A TRADE- WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY. && .MARINE... ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD AN EAST SWELL OF FOUR FEET IN IT. THIS DEVELOPED A 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS AND PRODUCED A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY SHOWED A FIVE FOOT SWELL SO INCREASED THE SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS TO 5 TO 7 FEET FOR TODAY. THIS INCREASE WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE EAST FACING REEFS. EXPECT THINGS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN-CASE THE SURF REMAINS AT THE CURRENT LEVEL. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ITCZ NOW WELL NORTH OF MAJURO AND KOSRAE. CONVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE IS PRIMARILY LOCATED JUST WEST OF POHNPEI. MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENTLE EAST TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS CURRENTLY OVER CHUUK SHOULD STRATIFY AND DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND FOR CHUUK AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER JUST TO THE EAST OF YAP AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ISLAND LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY KOROR TONIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE LONGER TERM WITH THE GFS AND UKMET DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY DUE TO CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED IN IR IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.