Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 8 Oct 2010 16:07:41 -0500

542 
FXPQ60 PGUM 082107
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
707 AM CHST SAT OCT 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS
MORNING. ONE TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
MOVING AWAY. A SECOND TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
WILL MOVE WEST AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. USED UKMET WINDS FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS THEY LOOKED MORE REPRESENTATIVE. LEFT REST AS IS
SINCE MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS. MODELS
KEEP WANTING TO DEVELOP A CIRCULATION OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDE A SECOND
CIRCULATION OVER THE MARIANAS WHICH COMPLICATES THE WIND
FORECAST. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT ANY CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP SO
BETTER TO LEAVE FORECAST AS IS UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN. IN THE NEAR
TERM LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS INCREASE IS IN RESPONSE TO A TRADE- WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHUUK.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD AN EAST SWELL OF FOUR FEET IN IT. THIS 
DEVELOPED A 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS AND PRODUCED A 
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY SHOWED A FIVE
FOOT SWELL SO INCREASED THE SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS TO 5 TO 
7 FEET FOR TODAY. THIS INCREASE WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE EAST FACING REEFS. EXPECT THINGS TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN-CASE
THE SURF REMAINS AT THE CURRENT LEVEL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ITCZ NOW WELL NORTH OF MAJURO AND KOSRAE. CONVECTION ALONG THIS 
FEATURE IS PRIMARILY LOCATED JUST WEST OF POHNPEI. MODELS HAVE BEEN 
PERFORMING WELL OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY 
DRY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENTLE EAST TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 
TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR ALL FORECAST 
LOCATIONS. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS 
NEEDED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE 
MARIANAS CURRENTLY OVER CHUUK SHOULD STRATIFY AND DIMINISH DURING 
THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND FOR CHUUK AS THE 
TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER JUST TO THE EAST 
OF YAP AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ISLAND LATER TODAY AND 
EVENTUALLY KOROR TONIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE LONGER TERM 
WITH THE GFS AND UKMET DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE 
AREA BY MONDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY DUE TO CURRENT 
DISORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AS DEPICTED IN IR IMAGERY AND ASCAT 
DATA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

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