Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 9 Oct 2010 01:24:09 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
109.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 090019Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW A WEAK EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ZJHK, LOCATED ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER, CONTINUE TO INDICATE 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1005 MB
SUPPORTING THE POOR ASSESSMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N
115.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 115.5E. APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH
OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090132Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAK, DEVELOPING CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WESTERLIES
JUST SOUTH OF 10N. THE 090132Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A BROAD LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

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