From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 9 14:24:36 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o996OZEs022088 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 14:24:36 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o97AjRJq025916; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 01:24:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3812004 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 01:24:17 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o996OGUL010235 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 01:24:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o996OAEl009549 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 01:24:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B6EBF4050176; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 01:24:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101009062409.B6EBF4050176@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 9 Oct 2010 01:24:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 090600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZOCT2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090019Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW A WEAK EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ZJHK, LOCATED ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, CONTINUE TO INDICATE 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1005 MB SUPPORTING THE POOR ASSESSMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 115.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 115.5E. APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090132Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK, DEVELOPING CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF 10N. THE 090132Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.