From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 9 15:24:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o997ORjW028702 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 15:24:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o99526YL002759; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 02:24:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3812245 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 02:24:12 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o997OCv7014245 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 02:24:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o997O57o007562 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 02:24:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B36AF4050175; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 02:24:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101009072405.B36AF4050175@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 9 Oct 2010 02:24:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 713 FXPQ60 PGUM 090723 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 5 PM CHST SAT OCT 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH MOST CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS. EXPECTING TO HAVE THE WEATHER EAST TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND PLACE THE ISLANDS IN A WET WEATHER REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAIPAN AND TINIAN HAD FEWER SHOWERS AND CLEARER SKIES THAN ROTA AND GUAM. EVEN THO... SHOWERS WERE IN THE VICINITY...AND DETERIORATING WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN AGREEMENT...INDICATING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE MARIANAS WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. HOWEVER...NOT ALL MODELS AGREED WITH THE GFS THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS BY MID WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE CIRCULATION IS WELL WEST OF THE MARIANAS AND WELL NORTHWEST OF YAP AND PALAU. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS EXCEPT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. USED GFS FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE MARSHALLS WILL KEEP MAJURO AND KOSRAE PLEASANT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NEXT AREA TO WATCH SITS JUST BEYOND THE DATELINE. MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW NIGHT IN MAJURO. POHNPEI SITS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUING WESTERN MICRONESIA. GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER POHNPEI AND THEN MOVING WEST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER TO ISOLATED LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS PALAU AND YAP...ACROSS GUAM...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO CHUUK. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BUILT IN ACROSS PALAU AND YAP WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT CHUUK. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS YAP AND PALAU BY COLUMBUS DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AT CHUUK WILL INCREASE TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER SLOWLY PASSES OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MILLER/GUARD/L.AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.