Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 9 Oct 2010 02:24:05 -0500

713 
FXPQ60 PGUM 090723
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
5 PM CHST SAT OCT 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH 
MOST CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS. EXPECTING TO HAVE 
THE WEATHER EAST TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND PLACE THE 
ISLANDS IN A WET WEATHER REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAIPAN AND 
TINIAN HAD FEWER SHOWERS AND CLEARER SKIES THAN ROTA AND GUAM. EVEN 
THO... SHOWERS WERE IN THE VICINITY...AND DETERIORATING WEATHER IS 
STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN AGREEMENT...INDICATING AN 
EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE MARIANAS 
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. 
HOWEVER...NOT ALL MODELS AGREED WITH THE GFS THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION 
WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS BY MID WEEK. SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE CIRCULATION IS WELL WEST OF 
THE MARIANAS AND WELL NORTHWEST OF YAP AND PALAU. NOT MUCH IS 
EXPECTED OUT OF THIS EXCEPT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
THROUGH MID WEEK. USED GFS FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE MARSHALLS WILL KEEP MAJURO AND KOSRAE 
PLEASANT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NEXT AREA 
TO WATCH SITS JUST BEYOND THE DATELINE. MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THIS 
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT INCREASED 
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW NIGHT IN MAJURO. POHNPEI SITS 
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN 
PLAGUING WESTERN MICRONESIA. GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SHOWERS 
DEVELOPING OVER POHNPEI AND THEN MOVING WEST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY 
TAPER TO ISOLATED LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
STRETCHES ACROSS PALAU AND YAP...ACROSS GUAM...AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 
CHUUK. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BUILT IN ACROSS PALAU AND YAP WITH 
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT CHUUK. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS 
ACROSS YAP AND PALAU BY COLUMBUS DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AT CHUUK WILL 
INCREASE TO SCATTERED TONIGHT AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE REGIONAL 
WEATHER SLOWLY PASSES OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY 
NEED TO BE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MILLER/GUARD/L.AYDLETT

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