From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 10 04:17:27 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o99KHPmd013006 for ; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 04:17:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o99HFDrL025680; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 15:17:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3816395 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 15:17:09 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o99KH9hJ011029 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 15:17:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o99KH26o024798 for ; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 15:17:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9E28240501A0; Sat, 9 Oct 2010 15:16:58 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101009201700.9E28240501A0@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 9 Oct 2010 15:16:58 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 759 FXPQ60 PGUM 092016 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 616 AM CHST SUN OCT 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A TUTT IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE MARIANAS...WITH ITS INFLUENCE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY NORTH OF SAIPAN. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING IN FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT WINDS AROUND TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BUT AT ONLY ABOUT 5 KT. RADAR SHOWS OLD DEBRIS FROM SATURDAY'S SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND BEING REPLACED BY NEW SHOWERS NW AND SE OF GUAM. && .DISCUSSION... AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...GFS FIRES SHOWERS UP AGAIN FOR THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS IN FROM THE WEST. UKMET AND ECMWF LEND ONLY WEAK SUPPORT TO THAT...BUT WITH SHOWERS ALREADY POPPING SE OF GUAM AND WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EVIDENT ON RADAR...HAVE GONE WITH GFS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEYOND THAT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS..ISLAND HEATING COULD BE A FACTOR IN SETTING OFF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A PROMINENT TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL AFFECT MAJURO THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE MARSHALLS TUESDAY. GENTLE SOUTHEAST TRADES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ITCZ PUSHES SOUTH... POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. FOR POHNPEI...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGING TRADE WINDS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FOR ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR YAP AND KOROR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE PALAU REGION ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE OVER KOROR AND YAP EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK WILL PROVIDE FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS DO POORLY IN THIS AREA...BUT ANTICIPATE FEATURE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.