Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 9 Oct 2010 15:16:58 -0500

759 
FXPQ60 PGUM 092016
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
616 AM CHST SUN OCT 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE MARIANAS...WITH ITS INFLUENCE
RESTRICTED TO MAINLY NORTH OF SAIPAN. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING IN FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT WINDS AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST...BUT AT ONLY ABOUT 5 KT. RADAR SHOWS OLD DEBRIS FROM
SATURDAY'S SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND BEING REPLACED BY NEW SHOWERS
NW AND SE OF GUAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...GFS FIRES SHOWERS UP AGAIN FOR THE MARIANAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS IN FROM THE WEST. UKMET
AND ECMWF LEND ONLY WEAK SUPPORT TO THAT...BUT WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY POPPING SE OF GUAM AND WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EVIDENT ON
RADAR...HAVE GONE WITH GFS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEYOND THAT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS..ISLAND HEATING COULD BE A FACTOR
IN SETTING OFF THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A PROMINENT TRADE-WIND 
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL AFFECT MAJURO THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW 
RETURNS TUESDAY ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE 
MARSHALLS TUESDAY. GENTLE SOUTHEAST TRADES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE AT KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE ITCZ PUSHES SOUTH...
POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. FOR
POHNPEI...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGING
TRADE WINDS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. GENERALLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FOR ALL FORECAST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF KOROR AND 
YAP. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH...ALLOWING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS FOR YAP AND KOROR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RIDGING IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE PALAU REGION ALLOWING 
DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE OVER KOROR AND YAP EARLY IN THE WEEK. A 
WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK WILL PROVIDE FAIRLY WET CONDITIONS FOR 
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS DO POORLY IN THIS AREA...BUT 
ANTICIPATE FEATURE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS

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