From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 10 15:58:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9A7wSvC005076 for ; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 15:58:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o995263o002759; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 02:58:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3819752 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 02:58:09 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9A7w9oH022921 for ; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 02:58:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9A7w2VM028619 for ; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 02:58:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6D8A7108B0001; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 02:58:02 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101010075802.6D8A7108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2010 02:58:02 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 229 FXPQ60 PGUM 100757 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 557 PM CHST SUN OCT 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER. THIS IS PART OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS AREA INCLUDES PALAU AND YAP AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AROUND MAJURO. && .DISCUSSION... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WET SEASON...THE MAJOR ACTION IS FROM THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/. THERE IS A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF US...THE WEAKEST I HAVE SEEN IN ALL MY TIME HERE. AT LEAST WE GOT SOMETHING THOUGH. MID LATITUDE EVENTS ARE SNEAKING CLOSER ALL THE TIME...REACHING SOUTH OF TAIWAN NOW. IT WILL NOT BE MUCH LONGER AND WE WILL BE MENTIONING SHEAR LINES IN OUR PRODUCTS. TROPICAL SEASON IS WINDING DOWN. SINCE MOST OF THE TUTT CONVECTION IS STILL EAST OF US...EXTENDED THE WEATHER A BIT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKED EXCELLENT SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... AN ITCZ IS PERSISTING ALONG 7N FROM CHUUK EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...THEN EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DATE LINE TO SOUTH OF HAWAII. IMPULSES TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM CHUUK EASTWARD TO KOSRAE INTO MIDWEEK. MAJURO HAS BEEN AT THE STRONGER CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN TRADE SURGES BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. NEARLY ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN UPON MAJURO SINCE THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THEN THE SW TO NE ORIENTATION OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE DATE LINE WILL CAUSE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO SHIFT NORTH OF MAJURO AND BRING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE WESTWARD FROM KOSRAE TO CHUUK AFTER MIDWEEK. FINALLY... INCREASING DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT MIGHT INTRODUCE SHOWERS BACK TO THE MARSHALLS TOWARD THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A MARGINAL MONSOON TROUGH IS STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES ACROSS JUST NORTH OF PALAU AND YAP...THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MARIANAS. WEAK CONVERGING SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND A SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO COUPLE WITH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO FIRE UP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH LOCATIONS THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION CAN BECOME SCATTERED DURING THIS DURATION... FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CURRENTLY NEAR THE DATE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTHWESTWARD DURING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE AREA AND PROMOTE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD THE WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.