From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 11 03:40:52 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9AJeowJ018708 for ; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 03:40:52 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9ADOAje002759; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 14:40:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3824693 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 14:40:35 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9AJeZh9000946 for ; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 14:40:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9AJeTx7015636 for ; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 14:40:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0945040501A0; Sun, 10 Oct 2010 14:40:28 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101010194029.0945040501A0@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2010 14:40:28 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 878 FXPQ60 PGUM 101940 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 540 AM CHST MON OCT 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM EAST OF GUAM AND ROTA...WITH SIGNS THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION MAY BE CLOSING OFF. INDEED...THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE VORTICIES PRESENT IN THE WEAK SURFACE WIND FIELD EAST OF THE ISLANDS. CURRENT RADAR WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH NEAR GUAM...BUT SAIPAN HAS LIGHT ESE WIND. && .DISCUSSION... GFS CLOSES OFF A CIRCULATION NORTH OF ROTA BY 10 AM THIS MORNING AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY AWAY TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UKMET IS WEAKER WITH THE CIRCULATION...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT AS A TROUGH. BUT IN ANY CASE THE MODELS AGREE ON SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO TUE NIGHT AS WELL. WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA ALREADY EVIDENT ON RADAR...HAVE FOLLOWED GFS CIRCULATION SCENARIO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WITH WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY LIGHT...DAYTIME HEATING MAY AUGMENT SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON GUAM. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY WED AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES AWAY. ALL THREE MODELS AGREE ON SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS EAST WINDS RETURN...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS MICRONESIA AS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PASSES OVER AND NORTH OF KOSRAE AND EVENTUALLY INTO POHNPEI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION EAST OF THE DATELINE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MAJURO BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS. MODEL DATA IS A LITTLE TOO SKETCHY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT BROUGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE FORECAST TO MAJURO. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ONCE THE CURRENT SHOWERS PASS THROUGH BY TUESDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TUESDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF YAP MOVE ACROSS YAP AND KOROR. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST FOR CHUUK. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS WEEK AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.