Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2010 14:40:28 -0500

878 
FXPQ60 PGUM 101940
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
540 AM CHST MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM EAST OF GUAM AND
ROTA...WITH SIGNS THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION MAY BE CLOSING OFF.
INDEED...THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE VORTICIES PRESENT IN THE WEAK
SURFACE WIND FIELD EAST OF THE ISLANDS. CURRENT RADAR WINDS ARE
FROM THE NORTH NEAR GUAM...BUT SAIPAN HAS LIGHT ESE WIND. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS CLOSES OFF A CIRCULATION NORTH OF ROTA BY 10 AM THIS MORNING
AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING
IT SLOWLY AWAY TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UKMET IS WEAKER
WITH THE CIRCULATION...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT AS A TROUGH. BUT IN
ANY CASE THE MODELS AGREE ON SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
PROBABLY INTO TUE NIGHT AS WELL. WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA ALREADY
EVIDENT ON RADAR...HAVE FOLLOWED GFS CIRCULATION SCENARIO WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WITH WINDS
REMAINING MOSTLY LIGHT...DAYTIME HEATING MAY AUGMENT SHOWERS OVER
THE ISLANDS BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON GUAM. SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY WED AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES AWAY. ALL THREE
MODELS AGREE ON SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY
WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS EAST WINDS RETURN...WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS MICRONESIA AS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PASSES OVER AND NORTH OF KOSRAE AND 
EVENTUALLY INTO POHNPEI LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION EAST 
OF THE DATELINE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MAJURO BEFORE DROPPING 
SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS. MODEL DATA IS A 
LITTLE TOO SKETCHY TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT BROUGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE FORECAST TO MAJURO. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ONCE THE CURRENT SHOWERS PASS
THROUGH BY TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF YAP AND 
KOROR AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK MONSOON 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TUESDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF 
YAP MOVE ACROSS YAP AND KOROR. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXIST FOR CHUUK. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THIS WEEK AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT

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