From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 11 14:10:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9B6AWUf017827 for ; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:10:33 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9AAjIXn002587; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 01:10:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3831850 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 01:10:13 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9B6ADLa007787 for ; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 01:10:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9B6A7PL020250 for ; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 01:10:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 69DE1108B0001; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 01:10:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101011061006.69DE1108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2010 01:10:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 152 FXPQ60 PGUM 110609 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 409 PM CHST MON OCT 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR GUAM AND AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 19N143E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY NEAR GUAM AND ROTA. && .DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS PLUS LOCAL OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY SHOW A WEAK CIRCULATION JUST NORTHWEST OF GUAM THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS BEST AND SHOW THAT IT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS PROBABLY ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MARIANAS AS WELL. KEPT FORECAST BASICALLY AS IS WITH JUST SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECAST TO REFLECT ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST ALL THE WAY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA IS SLOW TO MOVE AND POORLY ORGANIZED SO THOUGHT BEST TO NOT TAMPER WITH THE FORECAST. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND SWELL OF ABOUT FOUR FEET IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WW3 HAD TWO SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ONE FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. BLENDED THE TWO TOGETHER TO ARRIVE AT A NORTHEAST SWELL FOR THOSE DAYS. THIS DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE THE SURF FORECAST AND EXPECT A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS QUICKLY PASSED BY KOSRAE TODAY AND REACHED POHNPEI A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWERS WILL CARRY ON A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER WEST. MODELS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN ABOUT JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT THE NEXT TROUGH...NOW NORTHEAST OF MAJURO AND CROSSING THE DATE LINE...WILL HAVE ON EASTERN MICRONESIA. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK SITS IN A REGION OF FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...BUT THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO POHNPEI THIS MORNING SHOULD ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUES SHOWERS FOR CHUUK THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE ECMWF HOLDS ON SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTER PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEMS MOST LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH NORTH OF YAP AND PALAU IS KEEPING MORE SHOWERS FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE TWO LOCATIONS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED SOUTH A BIT SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE YAP FORECAST TO FOLLOW...BUT PALAU SHOULD SUFFICE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT. MODELS FORM A WEAK CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF THE TWO LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEY KEEP ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL NORTH WITH SURFACE RIDGING KEEPING SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.