From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 12 03:03:27 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9BJ3Qc3003836 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 03:03:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9B51uPO003879; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:03:03 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3837825 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:03:02 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9BJ32ma003573 for ; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:03:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9BJ2uc1004197 for ; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:03:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D554040501A0; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:02:54 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101011190255.D554040501A0@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:02:54 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 500 FXPQ60 PGUM 111902 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 502 AM CHST TUE OCT 12 2010 .SYNOPSIS... WITH THE CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF GUAM...HAVE SE SURFACE WINDS NEAR GUAM AND ESE WINDS AT SAIPAN AIRPORT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. RADAR HAS SHOWN 1 OR 2 BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS SW OF GUAM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND GFS STILL SEEMS TO BE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR DEALING WITH THE CIRCULATION AS A DRIFTS AWAY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED. HAVE STRETCHED MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THURSDAY AS DRYING LOOKS TO BE DELAYED A BIT BY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SE FLOW EAST OF THE CIRCULATION. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST INVOLVES DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE CIRCULATION ITSELF. IF IT MOVES AWAY FASTER THAN EXPECTED...OR IF IT SUDDENLY DECIDES TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE MODEL...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD DECREASE MUCH SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...FRI AND THE WEEKEND STILL LOOK TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DESPITE THE LOOMING AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...MODELS SHOW LITTLE INDICATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK FOR POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THE FORECAST CARRIES ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN POHNPEI AND KOSRAE...CURRENTLY STATIONARY...MAY EVENTUALLY DRIFT TOWARDS POHNPEI AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. A LINE OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF MAJURO WILL DROP SOUTHWARD BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE ATOLL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ARRIVED IN CHUUK JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER WET AND DREARY DAY. THE GOOD NEWS...MOST OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST EXTENDS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE HERE WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK CIRCULATION DEVELOPING. ALL BUT THE UKMET TURN THE CIRCULATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. JTWC INVEST AREAS 99W...91W AND 90W...ALL NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR...STRETCH WEST TO EAST ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ALL WEATHER AT THIS TIME IS LOCALIZED TO THESE CIRCULATIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER YAP AND KOROR. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REMOVED FROM YAP FOR TODAY AS THE REGION AROUND THE ISLAND HAS CLEARED CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE EAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.