Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2010 14:02:54 -0500

500 
FXPQ60 PGUM 111902
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
502 AM CHST TUE OCT 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF GUAM...HAVE SE SURFACE WINDS
NEAR GUAM AND ESE WINDS AT SAIPAN AIRPORT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. RADAR HAS SHOWN 1 OR 
2 BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS SW OF GUAM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND GFS STILL SEEMS TO
BE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR DEALING WITH THE CIRCULATION AS A DRIFTS
AWAY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS
GOOD THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MAY EVEN EXTEND INTO WED. HAVE STRETCHED
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THURSDAY AS DRYING LOOKS TO BE DELAYED A BIT BY
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SE FLOW EAST OF THE CIRCULATION.
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST INVOLVES DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CIRCULATION ITSELF. IF IT MOVES AWAY FASTER THAN
EXPECTED...OR IF IT SUDDENLY DECIDES TO DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY THAN
IN THE MODEL...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD DECREASE MUCH SOONER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN ANY CASE...FRI AND THE WEEKEND STILL LOOK
TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DESPITE THE LOOMING AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...MODELS 
SHOW LITTLE INDICATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK FOR 
POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THE FORECAST CARRIES ISOLATED SHOWERS 
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION BETWEEN POHNPEI AND KOSRAE...CURRENTLY STATIONARY...MAY 
EVENTUALLY DRIFT TOWARDS POHNPEI AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
SHOWERS. A LINE OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF MAJURO WILL DROP 
SOUTHWARD BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE ATOLL. WINDS WILL REMAIN 
LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ARRIVED IN CHUUK JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON WHAT SHOULD BE A 
RATHER WET AND DREARY DAY. THE GOOD NEWS...MOST OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS 
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST EXTENDS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO 
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE HERE WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK 
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING. ALL BUT THE UKMET TURN THE CIRCULATION INTO 
AN OPEN TROUGH. JTWC INVEST AREAS 99W...91W AND 90W...ALL NORTH OF 
YAP AND KOROR...STRETCH WEST TO EAST ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. 
ALL WEATHER AT THIS TIME IS LOCALIZED TO THESE CIRCULATIONS WITH 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER YAP AND KOROR. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS 
WAS REMOVED FROM YAP FOR TODAY AS THE REGION AROUND THE ISLAND HAS 
CLEARED CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD 
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE EAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT

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