From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 12 08:00:38 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9C00bMM019592 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 08:00:37 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9BHMm59025680; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 19:00:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3842099 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 19:00:16 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C00FmR001276 for ; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 19:00:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C009ds019667 for ; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 19:00:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 96A6140501D4; Mon, 11 Oct 2010 19:00:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101012000008.96A6140501D4@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2010 19:00:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 120000 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120000Z-120600ZOCT2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.9N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111650Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111155Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WEAK AND ELONGATED LLCC WITH 10 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 143.9E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM GUAM SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A 112024Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE ORGANIZING LLCC, INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS FAIR.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.