Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 00:50:42 -0500

936 
FXPQ60 PGUM 120550
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
350 PM CHST TUE OCT 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...JTWC INVEST 90W...REMAINS JUST
W-SW OF GUAM CENTERED NEAR 13N144E. THE CIRCULATION HAS KEPT THE
REGION UNDER THICK CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ABOUT 80 MILES TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS SO HAVE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS TAKES THE LEAD ON
PROLONGING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH UKMET AND ECMWF
KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
ISLANDS. 90W WILL GRADUALLY INCH WNW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. 

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE MARINE GRIDS. EAST-NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
REMAIN AT 4 TO 5 FEET. INCREASED SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE OF THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO
MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE MOVED BY MAJURO JUST TO 
THEIR SE TODAY AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED BETWEEN KOSRAE 
AND POHNPEI. THE ITCZ WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE 
LONGER TERM AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES MAINLY 
BETWEEN 5N AND 12N. KALO BUOY 163 JUST EAST OF MAJURO SHOWS COMBINED 
WAVES AROUND 4 FT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
JTWC INVEST AREA 90W IS W-SW OF GUAM AND 91W IS NW OF YAP. TWO OTHER 
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE SE OF YAP AND NEAR CHUUK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES 
WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY JUST FINE TUNING WINDS AND 
WEATHER ELEMENTS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED 
TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE COMING DAYS. IN THE LONGER 
TERM FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE FOR LIGHT E TO SE WINDS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON

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