From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 12 13:51:06 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9C5p5fC005866 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 13:51:05 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C3LWdC024152; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 00:50:53 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3847508 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 00:50:52 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C5onlp009293 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 00:50:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C5ohMx026184 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 00:50:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A7D1940501D3; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 00:50:42 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101012055042.A7D1940501D3@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 00:50:42 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 936 FXPQ60 PGUM 120550 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 350 PM CHST TUE OCT 12 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...JTWC INVEST 90W...REMAINS JUST W-SW OF GUAM CENTERED NEAR 13N144E. THE CIRCULATION HAS KEPT THE REGION UNDER THICK CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ABOUT 80 MILES TO THE EAST. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN RUNS SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS TAKES THE LEAD ON PROLONGING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH UKMET AND ECMWF KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS. 90W WILL GRADUALLY INCH WNW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE MARINE GRIDS. EAST-NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL REMAIN AT 4 TO 5 FEET. INCREASED SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE OF THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE MOVED BY MAJURO JUST TO THEIR SE TODAY AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED BETWEEN KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. THE ITCZ WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE LONGER TERM AND MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES MAINLY BETWEEN 5N AND 12N. KALO BUOY 163 JUST EAST OF MAJURO SHOWS COMBINED WAVES AROUND 4 FT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... JTWC INVEST AREA 90W IS W-SW OF GUAM AND 91W IS NW OF YAP. TWO OTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE SE OF YAP AND NEAR CHUUK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY JUST FINE TUNING WINDS AND WEATHER ELEMENTS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE COMING DAYS. IN THE LONGER TERM FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE FOR LIGHT E TO SE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.