Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 01:12:08 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N
135.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROADLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 120029Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS STRONG TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK (10 KNOT)
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
143.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
RADAR LOOP FROM GUAM SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 120028Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK WESTERLIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER (15-20 KNOT) WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

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