From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 12 14:12:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9C6CY5S008631 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:12:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C3LWeI024152; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 01:12:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3847652 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 01:12:21 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C6CKdb011107 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 01:12:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C6CEhk024517 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 01:12:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6332840501D3; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 01:12:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101012061214.6332840501D3@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 01:12:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 120600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZOCT2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 135.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROADLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 120029Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS STRONG TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK (10 KNOT) SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 143.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM GUAM SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 120028Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER (15-20 KNOT) WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.