Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:06:04 -0500

WTPN21 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 143.1E TO 14.4N 138.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 120830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 142.8E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 120452Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND CURVED INFLOW WRAPPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AT 12/06Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC REPORTED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. A 120028Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WEST/SOUTH-WESTERLIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER EAST/NORTH-EASTERLIES
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIVERGENT
REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A POSITIVE EFFECT ON THE SYSTEMS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND  AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130900Z.//

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