From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 12 17:06:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9C96UgT023406 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 17:06:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9BHMmPV025680; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:06:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3848412 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:06:12 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C96CqM021256 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:06:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C965VL025631 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:06:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 49A3940501D3; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:06:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101012090605.49A3940501D3@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:06:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 143.1E TO 14.4N 138.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 120830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 142.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120452Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND CURVED INFLOW WRAPPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AT 12/06Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC REPORTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. A 120028Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WEST/SOUTH-WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER EAST/NORTH-EASTERLIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIVERGENT REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A POSITIVE EFFECT ON THE SYSTEMS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 130900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.