From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 12 17:17:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9C9HUcc023999 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 17:17:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C7UZqd017124; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:17:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3848528 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:17:15 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C9HF15022022 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:17:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C9H8jY023833 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:17:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DE77540501D9; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:17:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101012091708.DE77540501D9@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:17:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 120930 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120930Z-130600ZOCT2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120851ZOCT2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 135.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROADLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 120029Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS STRONG TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK (10 KNOT) SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120452Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND CURVED INFLOW WRAPPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AT 12/06Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC REPORTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. A 120028Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WEST/SOUTH-WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER EAST/NORTH-EASTERLIES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIVERGENT REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A POSITIVE EFFECT ON THE SYSTEMS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 120900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO GOOD.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.