Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 04:17:08 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 120930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120930Z-130600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120851ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N
135.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER A BROADLY DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 120029Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS STRONG TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK (10 KNOT)
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 120452Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND CURVED INFLOW WRAPPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AT 12/06Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC REPORTED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. A 120028Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WEST/SOUTH-WESTERLIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER EAST/NORTH-EASTERLIES
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIVERGENT
REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A POSITIVE EFFECT ON THE SYSTEMS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 120900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO
GOOD.//

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