From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 13 03:57:51 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9CJvoJB024346 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 03:57:51 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9C7UZk0017124; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:57:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3857935 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:57:31 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9CJvV0l006220 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:57:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9CJvOvW016901 for ; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:57:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2E964108B0029; Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:57:18 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101012195720.2E964108B0029@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 14:57:18 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 411 FXPQ60 PGUM 121957 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 557 AM CHST WED OCT 13 2010 .SYNOPSIS... JTWC INVEST 90W IS CENTERED SW OF GUAM NEAR 12N142E...AND ITS CYCLONIC TURNING IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON RADAR. RADAR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN SOUTHWEST OF A NW-SE LINE BISECTING GUAM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH THRU EAST OF GUAM AS FAR AS ROTA AND VERY LITTLE BEYOND THAT UP TOWARD TINIAN AND SAIPAN. && .DISCUSSION... GFS IS VERY GENEROUS WITH RAINFALL ACROSS GUAM/ROTA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE UKMET AND ECMWF PULL THE SHOWERS SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM GUAM BY LATE TODAY. BUT ALL THE MODELS KEEP TINIAN AND SAIPAN OUT OF THE BULK OF THE RAIN...AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE. IN LIGHT OF CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND THIS DISPARATE MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE SPLIT GUAM/ROTA FROM TINIAN/SAIPAN TO GIVE G/R SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE GIVING T/S JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE TIMING OF SCATTERED AT G/R WILL DEPEND TO A LARGE DEGREE ON HOW QUICKLY 90W DEVELOPS. IF 90W ORGANIZES FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY INDEED END SOONER THAN FORECAST AS THE CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM CONCENTRATES RAIN NEAR ITS CENTER WHILE SUPRESSING SHOWERS FURTHER OUT. IF 90W REMAINS RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED FOR A WHILE...SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS G/R WELL INTO THURSDAY. BUT IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN WILL KEEP THEM RELATIVELY DRY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE MARSHALLS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN THE TWO ATOLLS. OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH LOCATIONS CORRESPOND WELL WITH MODEL ANALYSIS OF A WEAK CIRCULATION JUST TO THE NORTH...NEAR 10N171E. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE WEST PASSING NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FOR KOSRAE AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR POHNPEI. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... YAP...KOROR AND CHUUK ARE FREE OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS MORNING BUT JTWC INVEST AREAS 91W AND 90W ARE JUST NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST WEST OF CHUUK. MOST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK BUT MODELS KEEP SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KOROR THROUGH THE WEEK AS PART OF THE INFLOW TO 90W. 90W IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM WESTERN MICRONESIA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.