Subject: Pacific-NW: Ampn/ref A Is A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2010 21:56:13 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120851ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 11.4N 140.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 140.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 11.5N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 11.6N 138.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 11.9N 137.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 12.8N 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 14.8N 133.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 16.7N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 17.6N 126.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 140.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND
140300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
120900Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
120900).//

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