Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 01:13:07 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 130000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 140.8E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 315NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 108 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

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