From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 13 15:30:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9D7UfE5029593 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:30:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9CJXCC2025680; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 02:30:30 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3864707 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 02:30:29 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9D7UTN7003453 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 02:30:29 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9D7UNck012404 for ; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 02:30:29 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0C7C840501E6; Wed, 13 Oct 2010 02:30:22 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101013073023.0C7C840501E6@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 02:30:22 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 205 FXPQ60 PGUM 130730 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 530 PM CHST WED OCT 13 2010 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 12N140E. RADAR INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 15W CONSOLIDATING AND MOVING WESTWARD. && .DISCUSSION... WITH 15W MOVING AWAY FROM GUAM AND CONSOLIDATING...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN THE LONGER TERM... ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF THE MARIANAS BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. MODELS INDICATE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MARIANAS AFTER FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION VERY SPREAD OUT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH BETWEEN 12N AND 15N FROM 160E TO 180. ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGHING PATTERN FROM THE RMI TOWARD THE NE...BUT NO LLC IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THE ITCZ AND CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... JTWC HAS ISSUED WARNING NUMBER 1 FOR TD 15W(90W) AND IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH REGARDS TO AFFECTS AT ULITHI AND FAIS ATOLLS...AND YAP DURING NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...INVEST AREA 91W NEAR 13N132E IS MOVING SLOWLY NW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS JUST NW OF KOROR AND COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THERE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER HAS SETTLED INTO CHUUK AREA AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A MOIST FLOW ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. WEATHER FOR KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL STILL LOOKS VERY DRY AND DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE RE-ISSUED TOMORROW. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ DEVITA/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.