Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2010 02:30:22 -0500

205 
FXPQ60 PGUM 130730
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
530 PM CHST WED OCT 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 12N140E. RADAR INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 15W
CONSOLIDATING AND MOVING WESTWARD. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 15W MOVING AWAY FROM GUAM AND CONSOLIDATING...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN THE LONGER TERM...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF THE
MARIANAS BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. MODELS INDICATE GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE MARIANAS AFTER FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION VERY SPREAD OUT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH 
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH BETWEEN 12N AND 15N 
FROM 160E TO 180. ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGHING PATTERN FROM 
THE RMI TOWARD THE NE...BUT NO LLC IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME. MODELS 
INDICATE THE ITCZ AND CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS 
THIS AREA THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
JTWC HAS ISSUED WARNING NUMBER 1 FOR TD 15W(90W) AND IT WILL NEED TO 
BE MONITORED WITH REGARDS TO AFFECTS AT ULITHI AND FAIS ATOLLS...AND 
YAP DURING NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...INVEST AREA 91W NEAR 13N132E 
IS MOVING SLOWLY NW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS JUST NW 
OF KOROR AND COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THERE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER 
HAS SETTLED INTO CHUUK AREA AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED 
UNTIL A MOIST FLOW ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. WEATHER FOR KAPINGAMARANGI 
ATOLL STILL LOOKS VERY DRY AND DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE RE-ISSUED 
TOMORROW.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/SIMPSON

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